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Gold and miners throughout this wartime turmoil

Wednesday, April 1, 2026 20:05

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The yellow metal heated up as the drums of war were pounding, only to start selling off after it became clear a few bombs were not making Iran surrender. It’s a sad story that so many lives were sacrificed, for another potential threat blown out of proportion. Starting a war is easier than ending one…

Yet again, markets turn on a dime after third parties started negociating between the belligerent nations.

As oil peaked shortly after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, gold cratered. And once the perspective of a potential cease fire finally is on the table, the trend is reversing. Gold up, oil down, the sweet spot for miners. But the graphs below go back one year, not one volatile month !

Gold (USD/Oz) over one year ending March 31, 2026

Monthly average Platinum price in USD on Hong Kong from July 2021 till June 2025

2025-26 narrative: after first breaking above $3000 in March 2025, the rally faltered in April and a brief correction followed. The bounce end April brougt $3500 on the graph. However this was followed by a lengthy consolidation around $3300-$3400 lasting several months. Gold finally broke above $3500 only late August. That breakthrough triggered an unseen rally with the yellow metal up $1000 from its consolidation level. The second meaningful correction followed in the second half of October. A gold price below $4000/Oz turned out to be a buying opportunity, since the rally resumed with a late December peak. Gold ended 2025 with a mild correction only to start 2026 with a parabolic rise towards its all time high above $5400. January ended with a sharp sell off !

Political tention made the yellow metal strengthen and $5000 was quickly reached again. Gold peaked at the onset of the war, but sold off as counter strikes surprised Israel and the Gulf region. Oil rallied after the Strait of Hormuz was closed by Iranian military threats. The Trump announcement policy is triggering volatility in the oil market with sharp sell-offs and concurrent strengthening of gold.

The HUI miners index over one year ending March 31, 2026

Monthly average Platinum price in USD on Hong Kong from July 2021 till June 2025

Over 2025 miners realized a higher gain than did Gold. This is a clear break with the lengthy period of miners systematically underperforming the metal over several years. The recent sell-off was also more important. Miners are behaving as gold on steroids.

We recognize the same patterns as gold in the miners graph. There are a few subtle differences in timing. Those become more evident when plotting the HUI to Gold ratio as shown below.

HUI/Gold over one year ending March 31, 2026

Monthly average Platinum price in USD on Hong Kong from July 2021 till June 2025

On balance the HUI/Gold ratio rose over the past year, proving the miners to outperform the metal. Though miners sold late January, the recovery after the first week of February has been remarkable. Miners have peaked after gold did so. HUI/Gold peaked end February and started selling off before the yellow metal really took a hit. Towards end March the worst seems over.

Source: https://gwyde.blogspot.com/2026/04/gold-and-miners-throughout-this-wartime.html

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