A Major Currency Event is Unfolding

Source: Barry Dawes 03/31/2026

With Operation Epic Fury still on everyone’s minds, Barry Dawes of Martin Place Securities shares his thoughts on the market and where currencies are headed.

Epic Fury is still the focus and the implications are that a long war with boots on the ground will be endless and energy prices will strangle the world economy.

But it probably won’t run that way.

There is another government working in Iran that let 10 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.

In addition, the UAE is moving to reclaim three islands after the November 1971 Seizure (or Occupation) of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs.

Change in control here could also change the control of the flow of tankers in the Strait.

The IRGC is now severely weakened and as an invading Terrorist government it is soon likely to be overthrown by the 55m Persians (60% of a 90million population).

Rear guard actions from an ever-dwindling IRGC are likely to just fizzle out.

No boots on the ground for this one.

Treasury Secretary Bessent says >400m bbls of oil are available in floating and other storage to ease pressures.

Oil was looking toppy in Friday’s US markets, and although it is higher today in Asian trading, let’s see where it settles overnight.

Gold

Still doesn’t look like time for a reversal.

Oversold, but the technicals for a reversal are not quite there.

Did gold complete a `C’ Wave as the end of the correction to mark the end of Wave 4?

The gold bulls think so.

So now off to wave 5 and a new high.

This is now the most widely accepted view in the market.

But if it does, it WILL then mark the end of this bull market.

So that is probably not the most likely outcome.

Do keep in mind it is just possible every rally will be sold into because so many late entrants in gold are underwater.

So just let the markets tell us what the next move is.

But also watch the currencies as well as noted below.

Silver

The silver squeeze doesn’t seem to have eventuated.

Silver and silver stocks are just having spike highs.

Gold Stocks

Spike highs here, too, in the long-term charts.

It’s hard to imagine new surges with the long-term so strongly overbought.

These indices need to turn up quickly, or they will become continuation patterns and not reversal patterns.

Individual stocks aren’t showing constructive reversal patterns.

No high volume in the right places.

ASX Gold Index

The ASX Gold Index has 55 stocks again.

Last time it had this many was in 2011.

Was down to sub 20 in 2014.

There was a big volume and value on March 20, but less in the low of March 23, and steadily lower each day since.

Peak volume was on March 20, but the low was on March 23.

Even more concerning is that transactions from October 1, 2025, to February 28, 2026, totalling AU$91.6bn and 33.3bn shares are all in losing positions at today’s price level.

This is a major overhang.

Volume needs to pick up soon.

Except TOK, of course.

Currencies

European currencies and the Yen are heading much lower.

These falling currencies won’t help the gold bull case.

Energy importers are going to suffer.

The Yen is very close to the mid-2024 low, and after that, it is just a 25% fall in a short time.

The Euro failed to break above its 50 year uptrend and has turned down to fall below parity and probably thereafter to its demise.

NATO is indeed a paper tiger, and Western Europe will be left defenceless.

High taxes, big debts, no oil or gas, mass immigration, and tyrannical bureaucrats in charge.

The EU can’t possibly hold together for much longer.

The GB Pound failed to break long-term resistance and is now heading down.

The SF also failed to break higher and regain strength above its 50-year uptrend.

Upsloping wedge says heading back to parity.

Stupidity and arrogance are leaving Western Europe increasingly irrelevant to the world economy of the decades ahead.

And there are some other currencies to watch.

This one does not look good either. It could break US$0.70.

The Chinese Yuan looks vulnerable to a downdraft as well.

US Dollar

The Australian Dollar

The AU$ has made important breakouts many other currencies.

These are very positive factors in the outlook for the next decade.

Head the markets.

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Important Disclosures:

1. As of the date of this article, officers, contractors, shareholders, and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Pan American Silver Corp., Barrick Mining Corp., and Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
2. Barry Dawes: I, or members of my immediate household or family, own securities of: TOK. My company has a financial relationship with: None. My company has purchased stocks mentioned in this article for my management clients: None. I determined which companies would be included in this article based on my research and understanding of the sector.
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