ES Morning Update August 18th 2025
We should see some action this week as we will likely breakout of this range, whinch I think will first be up to the FP on the SPY of 655.66 to take out the shorts and trap the bulls. Then a sharp pullback the rest of the week and probably into early next week. I think we will see the 6245 support zone tested, and probably pierced before we turn back up for a bounce into the end of the month.
If this goes as I think it will “that bounce” will be a lower high for a B wave with the drop this week into early next as the A wave. Then the C wave will drag out into September 18th where I think the low will be put in. How low can it go you ask? I don’t know but since I don’t think we will top until the 1st quarter of 2026 (the final high before a bear market), I suspect the ES will want to fill the gap at 5300 or so.
Now that’s the dream pullback. We could also just pullback to the 588.79 FP on the SPY, which is roughly where the 200 Day Simple Moving Average is at (and will be into 9/18). One of these two scenario’s should play out. Then it can start the massive rally to 7000-8000 with tons of bears shorting every move up thinking the April lows are going to be taken out… but they won’t. That’s the big picture, and it’s not changed really from last weeks’ thoughts. As for the short term I remain looking for the FP to get hit before we rollover, and ideally it happens early this week.
Have a blessed day.
Source: http://reddragonleo.com/2025/08/18/es-morning-update-august-18th-2025/
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