The Fallacy of ‘Exxon Knew” (Part II)
Yesterday’s post, “‘Exxon Knew’ as Historical Fallacy“, provided historical context to weaken the claim that an internal Exxon study was demonstrative as to the future dangers of CO2-led global warming. Today’s post evaluates the rudimentary finding that (third bullet of the Exxon memo) that
The present trend of fossil fuel consumption will cause dramatic envrionmental effects before the year 2050.
Nine years after the internal Exxon memo (1979), reporting on the James Hansen testimony that launched the climate debate, environmental reporter Philip Shabecoff) provided specific forecasts of anthropogenic activity: 3–9°F and 1–4 feet by 2025–2050.
Mathematical models have predicted for some years now that a buildup of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil and other gases emitted by human activities into the atmosphere would cause the earth’s surface to warm…. If the current pace of the buildup of these gases continues, the effect is likely to be a warming of 3 to 9 degrees Fahrenheit from the year 2025 to 2050, according to these projections. This rise in temperature is not expected to be uniform around the globe but to be greater in the higher latitudes, reaching as much as 20 degrees, and lower at the Equator.
And regarding sea level rise:
The rise in global temperature is predicted to cause a thermal expansion of the oceans and to melt glaciers and polar ice, thus causing sea levels to rise by one to four feet by the middle of the next century. Scientists have already detected a slight rise in sea levels.
Into this forecast period, almost four decades later, the recorded increase is under 1.5°F and around four inches. The 1,300-word, front-page Times article can be read in its entirely. The point here is that exaggeration has marked the climate debate from the beginning. This includes the above statement in the Exxon memo, a reason to heavily discount it today.
The post The Fallacy of ‘Exxon Knew” (Part II) appeared first on Master Resource.
Source: https://www.masterresource.org/climate-exaggeration/the-fallacy-of-exxon-knew-part-ii/
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