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Returning to the Baltics

Monday, September 21, 2026 8:02

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Just back from a round trip, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania – determined to get there, perhaps for the last time, before Putin does. It might have been a closer-run thing than we’d anticipated.

* * * *

When I was based in Moscow in the mid 1990s, I also had a pied-a-terre office in Riga [LVA], so in a dated fashion I am somewhat familiar with that city. The building was gone – it had been the Latvian Konsomol HQ – and replaced by something very mundane: but its twin on the opposite corner is still standing, so you get the idea.

Site of Drew’s office: back then it looked like its twin on the left

In all three countries, Russian can still be heard spoken (far more in Riga than anywhere else) but support for Ukraine is very great. In May, Putin took powers to use the army to “protect Russian citizens” abroad and appealed to the UN Court of Justice to demand the Baltic states, particularly Latvia, be held to account for “infringing on the rights of Russians”. The sabre-rattling is there for all to hear.

Well, one of his massive strategic errors was to treat so very badly those parts of the ‘pro Russian’ Donbas he seized in 2014: you have to be an extremely Russophile Russian-speaker to want the same for your own region. In the lovely university town of Tartu [EST] a museum attendant advised me to keep my (modest) knowledge of Russian to myself.

But could the Baltics be defended? It’s perfect tank country, flat as a pancake: the highest ‘mountain’, Suur Munamägi [EST] is only 1,000 ft. The population is sparse, and declining in each country[1]. The first is true of both Sweden and Finland, of course, and nobody mistakes them for a pushover. But defensively their geographical advantages are great. The Baltics by contrast have a hideously long land border with Russia / Belarus; far less defensive depth; the anomalous bastion-state of Kaliningrad to their south; and something of a fifth column, however small, in each country. In terms of the usual Russian strategy – a lightning land-grab, promptly fortified and never to be returned, with rachet-increments planned thereafter – only the full force of NATO could offer protection. And that means more than just a plausible strong Polish counter-thrust from the south and some Ukrainian drone-warfare savvy. Yes, we saw NATO troops and aircraft everywhere, but not in vast numbers.

Frankly, ‘defence’ here means an exceptionally fast and large-scale counter-mobilisation during a buildup period[2], plus a credible nuclear deterrent: sanctions have already been pretty much maxxed out. If Putin survives another decade in his present frame of mind, and if he doesn’t believe our red lines (we’ve never believed his), there’s little hope.

* * * *

As if to reinforce these gloomy thoughts, two weeks ago the F16s and Typhoons were circling Vilnius [LTU] as we arrived and the airport was briefly closed. At midnight a day later, up on our phones flashed a (Lithuanian) government alert message – ‘Find safe place‘. The drone in question was promptly shot down and the all-clear given; but there were squads of soldiers on the street the next morning.

Certainly takes the edge off a holiday trip. A great shame, because the weather was good, the insects not oppressive (other than in Riga), we saw some beautiful sights and met some great people. In principle, we’d also like to go back again – a great deal more to see. Can we hope that a Burnham – Miliband government will contribute meaningfully to strengthening the West’s collective position?

________________________________

[1] Also declining in Russia, of course – and most everywhere else in Eastern Europe.

[2] And who else in Europe believed the very specific US / UK intelligence warnings in 2021-22? Blinkered hope reigns eternal.

Source: http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2026/09/returning-to-baltics.html

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