US-China Trade Falls Despite Being Propped Up by Soybean Exports

The United States’ top export to China is soybeans. That’s why the news the U.S. and China had struck a trade deal at the end of October 2025 was so exciting, because it came with a commitment from China to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S.-grown soybeans.

China’s soybean buyers completed their purchases before the end of 2025, the bulk of which were exported in December 2025 and January 2026. But instead of giving a large boost to trade between the two nations, that increase in exports only delivered a small increase over the November 2025 low, with the boost offset by the falling level of trade of other goods.

In February 2026, the boost from the negotiated soybean sales to China ended and the combined value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China fell to $26.9 billion. That level falls below the 2020 Coronavirus Pandemic low for this data series.

The following chart shows that negative data trend for the monthly value of trade between the U.S. and China.

We had anticipated a larger boost to that overall trade from China’s soybean purchases from the U.S., but that impact has proven to be disappointing.

It’s clear the level of trade won’t return to its pre-2025 tariff war levels anytime soon. The trailing twelve month average of that trade is $18.8 billion below our counterfactual projection of what the level of trade between the U.S. and China would look like in the absence of the trade war between them in February 2026.

That brings the decline in the trailing twelve month average of the direct trade between the U.S. and China to a cumulative loss of $108.5 billion in the value of goods exchanged between the U.S. and China.

Meanwhile, reports indicate China is turning to alternatives to reduce its need to import large quantities of soybeans, which if successful, will negatively impact soybean farmers in both the U.S. and Brazil, the largest exporters of soybeans to China:

At the edge of one of the many pig farms spread across the vast, unbroken floodplains of Taizhou, a two-hour drive northwest of ​Shanghai, a pair of square, four-metre pools of acrid-smelling ochre liquid hold the key to cutting costly soybean use in half.

The pools hold a swill of cheaper, locally sourced ingredients, which ‌can include brans, pumpkin vines and wine lees. But it is fermented – like yogurt – so the proteins are already broken down and easy to digest, lessening the need for the higher-quality proteins in soy, 80% of which China imports….

The government sharply accelerated a drive ​to expand protein sources for livestock in March of last year, just as trade tensions ramped up early into President Donald Trump’s second term. Soybeans quickly became a ⁠key bargaining chip.

Reuters interviews with dozens of livestock and feed producers, state researchers and industry experts revealed Beijing is moving faster than previously thought to deploy new technologies and promote fermented feed.

It’s the agricultural equivalent of Beijing’s campaign to build ​domestic capabilities in microchips and artificial intelligence, catalysed by Washington’s stringent controls on advanced technology exports to China.

A permanent loss of soybean exports would further hammer the level of trade between the U.S. and China.

References

U.S. Census Bureau. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (FT900). U.S. Trade in Goods with China, Not Seasonally Adjusted, Nominal Figures, Total Census Basis. [Online database]. Accessed 19 February 2026.

Image Credit: Brown cardboard ampersand concrete statue inside an intermodal container photo by Jan Baborák on Unsplash.