Meh

Last weekend we were on the Eve of Destruction.

Remember Power Plant & Bridge Day? Almost nostalgic now. Then we got TACO, a ceasefire (sort of) and the Dow went up a thousand points. Oil went shooting down. Then shooting up.

Oh, and remember that heroic rescue of the downed F-15 pilot from his mountaintop refuge behind enemy lines on Easter Sunday? The Americans say it took more than 100 aircraft to pull that off. The Iranians sya there was no airman, no rescue and the Yanks were foiled in a covert op to dig up those piles of enriched uranium that started this whole shebang.

So confusing. And all investors wanna do is make bank.

Of course more consequential to your net worth than Tehran, Kharg Island or the Strait of Tolls is the economy we all live in. So, what’s the latest here?

First, jobs. Looking better. After shedding a disastrous 84,000 positions in February, we added 14,000 in March. Not enough, but better. Given the spurt in energy costs, the chill of the war and the kerplunk of the housing market, not bad. Meanwhile US job growth is running at the best pace in months, a welcome relief after the first year of Trump 2.0 was a disaster for the labour market.

Inflation? Yup, as you’d expect. Hot again. The latest print in the States is 3.3% annualized, and a steamy 0.9% in March. Gas is up almost 40%. Diesel is ridiculous. Fertilizer is worse. The whole supply and food chain is starting to feel the effects of $100+ oil. This is completely the fault of one man who, polling indicates, will pay the price.

Interest rates will be staying put in Canada all year, it seems. The CB might be tempted to hike if the cost of living spurts here, too, but with a weak job market and sketchy economic growth, the bankers will elect to sit on their hands. Good choice.

In the US, three rate decreases expected in 2026 may turn into one, or none. US mortgage rates have jumped a half point since the war began at the end of February. In Canada, five-year home loan money is up by about a quarter. In both countries real estate affordability is a major social and political issue, and the Iran conflict has just made things a tad worse.

Better news is coming with corporate profits. Consumer spending remains relatively strong. There is still a massive AI infrastructure investment going on. Defence spending is soaring on both sides of the border. Mr. Market is anticipating an overall profit advance this year of about 17%. Awesome.

So, the jobs market is stabilizing. Interest rates are stable. Inflation is up, but everyone thinks that is temporary. Corps are making serious money. And the S&P 500 is still ahead 24% over the last 12 months, despite the best efforts of vengeful leaders in Israel and America.

Unlike last Friday, the bombing has paused. The oil is not yet flowing and hostilities could resume anytime, but it’s likely the worst is over. The White House is fully aware the war with Iran cannot be won, that this campaign changed nothing and should never have begun. Nonetheless, Trump will declare a complete and fulsome victory and the knuckledraggers in MAGA will cheer.

In the end, it means zip. Oil will take a while to retreat in price. Inflation will linger. The spring rutting season housing market will fizzle again. Mr. Market will go back to focusing on the consumer economy and corporate earnings.

Another lesson for all. What seems to matter rarely does.

It was not different this time, either.

About the picture: “A photo for your blog perhaps?  Lola (right) is enjoying a car ride with her little friend Misha,” writes Robin. “Life is good when you’re going to the dog park on Vancouver Island.  Meanwhile, I’m still enjoying your informative, entertaining, daily blog along with the dog pics.   It adds some light and humour during these crazy times. Thanks for all you do.

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/04/10/meh/