Bombs away

This post is being written (not by robot) hours before futures open Sunday evening. But when that happens, expect some drama. Best, ignore it.

While the award-winning macroeconomists in the steerage section are forecasting market meltdown and a 50% plop in stocks, that’s not going to happen. Oil will undoubtedly go up. Inflation jitters may push bond yields down. Equity investors will take risk off the table, kicking the indices lower. Gold may add more.

But everyone who’s been through previous storms knows quick moves are just gambles. Until the missile smoke and drone debris dust clear, no clarity can come on what – if anything – investors can do to protect themselves.

What we know: Trump bombed Iran, in part because Netanyahu wanted it. The Iranian supreme leader was offed along with others in key positions. An interim boss was named. Iran fired a bunch of missiles and drones. The region destabilized fast. Oil tankers u-turned. The White House told Iranians to rise up and overthrow the regime of 47 years. More air strikes ensued. Next events? Dunno.

Maybe democracy will flower in Iran. Perhaps the regime holds, the troops stay loyal, and lots more demonstrators are killed. Maybe Israel will try to do to the country what it did to Gaza. There could be a civil war now that the old guard has been knocked down. It’s possible a regional conflict ensues and global energy supplies are threatened. Maybe oil will go to $100 or more, leading to a price spike in the US and an end to MAGA. Or this weekend’s strikes prove surgical, like in Venezuela, and Trump’s a hero.

Dunno. Impossible.

But we know oil prices have been swelling for several weeks. We know gold has already been a safe-haven asset in the minds of many, pushed 22% higher so far in 2026. And we certainly know that America attacking another country for the seventh time in a year will cause volatility.

But hold your emotions.

“We would recommend not buying any immediate dip – risk-reward doesn’t seem compelling,” analysts at Barclays said yesterday. “If equities pull back enough, say over 10% in the S&P 500, there is likely to come a time to buy. But not yet.”

Oil could certainly be a $100-play, adds Capital Economics. Gold may move up the scale, but it’s already valued at a premium. Crypto did little when the bombs started to fall, and Bitcoin is no longer seen as a viable, stable, cozy shelter. As mentioned, bond yields may go up and debt prices fall as energy prices jump and inflation fears rekindle. A lot of that will depend on the Strait of Hormuz. Can some honkin’ big US aircraft carriers keep it open? Dunno.

Legendary Wall Street analyst Ed Yardeni is telling people to chill. “We wouldn’t be surprised if any selloff in the S&P 500 on Monday morning turns into a rally, driven by expectations of lower oil prices once the latest Middle East war ends,” he says.

Unknown as well is what the OPECers will do. Turn on the production taps to flood the world in crude and stabilize prices? Maybe. Dunno.

Meanwhile the actions of America are cloaked in Trumpian mystery. The president has started a war without asking Congress, which is illegal. In fact, by international rules the war itself is illegal, since the USA is not being immediately threatened, attacked or provoked. His global tariffs were recently ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, and ICE agents have been engaged in illegal and unconstitutional actions – so Trump obviously cares not for rules. What crazy stuff could he do next? Send in ground troops if the Iranians don’t behave? Dunno.

There’s no question this is a serious moment. The world’s dominant military attacked a sovereign state and now risks systemic global disruption. That makes Russia’s assault on Ukraine look, you know, normal. But as Melania once said, boys will be boys.

In conclusion, there is no conclusion. And when you don’t know what to do, do nothing.

These are the days a balanced and diversified approach to investing was made for. Different asset classes. No big, vulnerable positions. Broad exposure. Growth and safety. A global profile. Hedging your bets through the ownership of thousands of companies, multiple economies and commodities.

Don’t be a cowboy. We’ve already got one too many.

About the picture: “Here is Hugo again,” writes Dereko. “He was very happy to make your blog post in the past and hopes to make it again. This is a photo from a few years ago as we on the left coast have not had any white stuff yet.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2026/03/01/bombs-away-2/