Of scams & TACOs

There were no rivulets of blood in the gutter on Bay Street this morning. No crimson stains on the foot of fresh snow. Just another Monday of green arrows for a stock market which catapulted investors 32% into twin column last year.

But wait. Aren’t we the next Greenland? Isn’t the most powerful man on the planet pissed at us? Isn’t the free trade deal with America in jeopardy? Didn’t we hear of 100% tariffs on Canadian exports on the weekend? And is not the world’s most famous investor pulling the plug on all maple investments?

A YouTube has emerged of Warren Buffett saying he is so done with Canada, in light of Trumpian protectionism. He’s getting out, and it scared the permafrost out of Darlene, in Manitoba.

Here she be:

D is a client. In remediation, she sent this note today to me and my trusty colleague Doug. “I would really appreciate your insights. I felt Buffett made some really sensible arguments. However, if I understand correctly, this is going to be tough on Canadian corporations affected by the slow ‘risk off the table’ by Buffett, and a considerable slowdown economically for Canada, generally.

“Garth often says “don’t bet against America”, so how does that play to your clients’ advantage investing in US-based ETFs and other USA equities? Yeah, I’m a ‘worrier’ and love having data and informed knowledge as a way to counter this tendency to anxiety.”

Perfectly understandable. Risks seem high now. Confusion is higher. And Buffett is a beacon.

Except,this ain’t him. It’s an AI sham. Buffet is no longer the boss at Berkshire, and any major move like this would come from the new guy, Greg Abel. Besides, no financial media is reporting a Buffett bail-out. Because it’s fake.

Now, here’s some sound comments from Doug (why he makes the big bucks)…

“One of the keys to successful portfolio management is to never make concentrated bets. We only slightly tilt client portfolios towards areas we favour and tilt them slightly away from areas we don’t. If we had overreacted last year to Trump attacking Canada with, amongst other remarks: “51st state”, “egregious behavior”, “negotiations terminated”, “flood of fentanyl”, “one of the nastiest countries”, “[US will use] economic force”, etc. and drastically reduced our Canada equity exposure we would have denied our clients a 30%+ return from the Canadian equity market.

“Also, the areas the US is primarily targeting—aluminum, forestry and softwood lumber, automotive supply chains—make up only small portion of our equity market. Other larger areas—financials, commodities—are international and more sheltered from Trump’s actions and may even benefit from them. Commodities, for example, benefit from a weaker US dollar, which is a consequence of his tariffs.

“Garth is also right about not betting against America. Despite Trump’s actions, US corporations remain highly profitable and interest rates are poised to move lower this year, both factors are historically positive drivers of the stock market. The best way to navigate these complicated markets is to remain balanced and diversified, and global. And this is exactly how your portfolio is positioned.”

Bingo.

Trump will not slap 100% tariffs on all our stuff. The US will not annex, invade or kidnap Mark Carney while he sleeps. The trade agreement will remain, bruised but intact. Alberta will not join Montana. Canada will continue to supply 60% of US oil imports and be the second-largest American trading partner. And, yeah, we’ll do deals with China and the rest of the world. With midterm elections coming, ICE out of control and Trump’s approval ratings circling the drain, 2026 could well be another Year of the TACO.

Don’t bet against America. Don’t diss Canada. Do not be fooled.