#Economy & #Stocks Review - Neither President Trump Nor The Fed Control The Economy

E&S Review

Much of today’s economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.

Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.

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Neither President Trump Nor The Fed Control The Economy

President Donald Trump criticized the Federal Reserve during a speech at the Detroit Economic Club, arguing that interest rates should be lowered when economic data is strong. He claimed that the Fed’s current approach—raising rates after positive economic news—undermines market rallies and limits growth. Trump said he wants a Fed chair who supports rate cuts during strong market performance, and suggested his administration would pursue a different monetary policy if he returns to office. He also asserted that the U.S. economy is already growing faster than other major economies and declared that a new Trump-led economic boom has begun.

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Elite traders follow the invisible hand above all. They are indifferent to what Jerome Powell or President Trump says to the media. Let’s isolate one claim from above commentary:

“The Trump economic boom is officially begun.”, said Trump.

Oh, really?

The Economic Activity Composite (EAC) long-term oscillator, a leading trend indicator for equities and other risk on assets, turned higher in January 2023, during the Biden administration. To be clear, President Biden had little to do with that shift either. Economic trends are not set by presidents; they are driven by the invisible hand that governs the cycles followed throughout the Matrix.

The current economic “boom” was triggered in early 2023, fueled largely by the weight of massive debt issuance. That uptrend reached a time-cycle score of 1.4 in January 2026 and is projected to extend into June and July—just as the EAC cycle itself begins to turn down. Claiming that the economic boom has “officially begun” is a ludicrous narrative sold to a public that believes Presidents, The Fed, and global elites control market trends with magic strings.

Observe how closely the S&P 500 tracks the EAC. The EAC LTCO (dark red line) generates red highlight boxes well before the S&P’s trend turns lower. The EAC time cycle will be stretched by early summer. Subscribers will be ready. We’ll explore the timing in more detail in the future E&S Report. Please join us. The invisible hand has a nasty habit of teaching the public through pain. It does not have to be this way.

Economic Activity Composite

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

Source: http://www.edegrootinsights.com/2026/01/economy-stocks-review-neither-president.html