#Corn Review $CORN #ZC_F - Narratives Confuse Understanding and Trends

Corn Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

Corn’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

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The Corn Report, a series of videos, provides a more detailed discussion.

“Top Gun rules of engagement exists for your safety and for that of your team. They are not flexible, nor am I. Either obey them, or you’re history. Is that clear?”

A high percentage of our readers, followers, and subscribers fail to adhere to the Evolution of the Trade (EOT), our rules of engagement that defines the strict discipline necessary to survive. This majority, unfortunately, solidifies their role as bag holders rather than flourishing and thriving.

Someone Always Knows

USDA’s January report sent corn futures sharply lower after unexpectedly raising the U.S. corn yield to a record 186.5 bushels per acre and production to a record 17 billion bushels. Ending stocks were increased to 2.27 billion bushels, pressuring prices as the market absorbed the surprise. Analyst Arlan Suderman of StoneX said the revisions caught the trade-off guard, especially given disease and dryness concerns, and questioned USDA’s decision to raise feed usage instead of exports. Corn prices broke below their recent trading range, with further downside possible depending on speculative selling and end-user demand.

In soybeans, USDA left yield unchanged but raised ending stocks to 350 million bushels after cutting exports, which also weighed on prices, though October lows held. Wheat stocks increased slightly, while winter wheat seedings fell just 1%, a result Suderman found surprising given low prices. In livestock, cattle futures recovered, supported by cheaper corn, higher boxed beef values, and tight supplies, with Suderman noting that lower feed costs should continue to support cattle demand despite occasional market corrections.

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At the end of the trade, the fundamentals do not matter. We cannot stress this point enough, even if it offends. Please watch the Corn Report for a better understanding of why the latest price decline is not a surprise. Our understanding comes from following the money—the invisible hand—through energy.

Energy builds encapsulate the battle between smart and dumb money. Smart money has been distributing corn for months, while dumb money (retail) has been accumulating. Yesterday’s decline will likely release corn’s highly concentrated bearish energy build (DI) into the decline (see Corn DI chart). In other words, expect DI to rise as price falls, as smart money accumulates the dip within Phase 4 of the Evolution of the Trade, called the Primary Trend Decline. Corn is PDT2. We expect to turn when the majority least expects it.

Please consider subscribing to the Matrix, and learning how to track the invisible hand through the Corn and other commodity Reports. Please contact us if you have questions.

Corn DI

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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.