US #TreasuryBond Review $TLT $IEF - Growing Dissent At The Fed
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| US Bonds Review |
Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.
US Treasury bond’s overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined in The Matrix for subscribers.
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Growing Dissent At The Fed
The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25bp rate cut, bringing the funds rate to 3.5–3.75%, though the vote showed growing division. Despite continued easing, the Fed’s forecasts carry a hawkish tilt—several officials see the “appropriate” rate as higher than the current range, and GDP expectations for 2026 have been revised up.
These projections may have limited relevance as major leadership changes are expected in 2026, likely shifting the Fed toward a more dovish stance. Markets currently expect about 50bp of further cuts next year, and analysts anticipate two cuts in 2026 as inflation trends lower and labor market data softens.
Financial conditions are normalizing: floating rates have fallen below long-term rates for the first time in years, and the Fed is stabilizing liquidity by pausing balance-sheet runoff and beginning sizable T-bill purchases.
The dollar weakened slightly after the decision, with markets viewing the cut as less hawkish than it could have been. Near-term FX moves will hinge on upcoming U.S. job data and several major central-bank meetings, with seasonal patterns favoring a softer dollar into year-end.
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The majority file this one under ‘Who cares?’ but do not be deceived. The dissent is real, and the White House’s view that lower Fed funds rates fix everything is wrong.
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The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.
Source: http://www.edegrootinsights.com/2025/12/us-treasurybond-review-tlt-ief-growing.html
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