The S&P 500 Rises with December 2025 Rate Cut Expectations

On Thanksgiving holiday week, the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) rose 1.7% from its previous week’s close, reaching 6,849.09 by the close of trading on Friday, 28 November 2025.

The index’ gains was largely driven by growing expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will act to cut the Federal Funds Rate when its Federal Open Market Committee concludes a two-day meeting on Tuesday, 10 December 2025, overcoming the opposition of the FOMC’s biggest grumps who lost face during the year by predicting much higher inflation would result from tariffs than is supported by real world evidence. Through Friday, 28 November 2025, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicates an 87% probability of a quarter point rate cut on 10 December (2025-Q4), up from 71% a week earlier and from 44% the week before that.

In 2026, the FedWatch tool gives better than even odds for additional quarter point rate cuts on 29 April (2026-Q2), 29 July (2026-Q3), and 9 December (2026-Q4), which is unchanged from the previous week.

This growing expectation puts the S&P 500′s trajectory will within the redzone forecast range we added to the alternative futures chart in the previous edition of the S&P 500 chaos series. Here’s the latest update of the chart:

The other major story that’s been driving the direction of the S&P 500 index during 2025 was relatively quiet during the Thanksgiving holiday-shortened trading week. However, what happens with firms making big AI technology-related investments continues to affect the market’s direction, which in the past week meant providing the biggest boost to the markets’ major indices. Here are the market-moving headlines from the week that was.

Monday, 24 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• No recession risk for US economy as a whole after $11 billion shutdown hit, Bessent says
• Oil prices climb as market bets on US rate cut despite Ukraine peace hopes

• Biggest Gas Pipeline Buildout Since 2008 Propels Trump Energy Push

Companies tone down price hike talk as tariff fog clears

US banks report 13.5% jump in profits: FDIC

Fed minions still thinking about December rate cut:

• Fed’s Waller: December cut appropriate, but January action more uncertain – Fox Business

Bigger trouble developing in Japan, China:

• Japan can actively intervene to prop up yen, says govt panel member Aida
• China says Japan sent ‘shocking’ wrong signal on Taiwan

• China criticises Japan’s plan to deploy missiles on island near Taiwan

Japan fiscal experiment is lab test for Treasuries

Chief ECB minion thinks Eurozone minions’ approach to AI technology is wrong:

• EU missing the boat on AI, jeopardising its future, Lagarde warns

Nasdaq closed higher by more than 2% to kick off the holiday-shortened week

• Wall Street ends higher on tech rebound, rising rate cut bets
• Nasdaq surges and these 10 stocks have fueled the ride higher

• Alphabet races toward $4 trillion valuation as AI-fueled gains accelerate

Tuesday, 25 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Oil dips on oversupply concerns while investors eye Ukraine talks

• OPEC+ seen keeping oil output unchanged, focus on capacity debate

Inflation weighing on US income growth ahead of holiday season, study says

US pending home sales increase in October amid lower mortgage rates

US tech valuations stretched further as earnings contribute less

New leading candidate to be next Chief Fed minion, new minion sees rising unemployment as reason for December rate cut, Treasury Secretary not happy with how Fed manages interest rates:

• Hassett emerges as frontrunner to be Trump’s next Fed chair, Bloomberg News reports

• Stocks Hit Session Highs On Report Hassett Emerges As Trump’s Next Fed Chair Pick
• Good chance Trump may unveil Fed pick by Christmas, Bessent says

Fed’s Miran ties rising unemployment to current setting of monetary policy – Fox Business

US Treasury secretary takes aim at Fed’s interest rate control system

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:

• Germany stagnates in innovation ranking as rivals surge ahead

Dow rallied over 650 points as Wall Street finished firmly in the green

• Wall Street ends higher as Federal Reserve rate cut bets gather momentum

Wednesday, 26 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US economic activity little changed ahead of next Fed meeting, report shows
• Oil edges up as investors await clarity on supply, Russia-Ukraine deal

• US drillers cut oil rigs to lowest in four years, Baker Hughes says

US weekly jobless claims at seven-month low amid low layoffs

BOJ minions gearing up to hike Japan’s interest rates:

• Exclusive: BOJ preps markets for near-term hike as weak yen overshadows politics

Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone, ECB minions say they’re in no mood for more rate cuts:

• Reality check for EU: China is eating your lunch, find growth at home, ECB chief economist argues
• Euro zone banks should prepare for risk of dollar squeeze, ECB says
• ECB should cut rates only if inflation path points downward without rebound, Vujcic says

Wall Street finished higher on fresh economic signals ahead of Thanksgiving

• Wall St ends higher on growing bets for December Fed rate cut

• Divided Fed sparks surge in rate options hedging as policy uncertainty lingers

Friday, 28 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Brent oil price stable, WTI also steaudy after resumption

Big brokerages not sure which way Fed minions are going to go with cutting rates in December 2025:

• Major brokerages divided over Fed’s December rate decision following jobs data

• JP Morgan shifts outlook on Fed rate cut to December

Bigger trouble, saber-rattling developing in China:

• China’s next economic shift is primed for backlash

• China’s factory activity set to shrink for eighth month: Reuters poll
• China’s industrial profits fall in October after two months of strong growth

Japan will pay ‘painful price’ if steps out of line over Taiwan, China military says

Bigger stimulus developing in Japan, BOJ minions expected to hike rates:

• Japan finalises $117 billion extra budget to fund stimulus, mostly via debt

• Japan government panel members call for sustainable fiscal policy

Bank of Japan’s Noguchi advocates gradual interest rate hikes

• Core inflation in Japan’s capital brings BOJ closer to a rate hike

ECB minions expected to not do anything with Eurozone interest rates anytime soon:

• ECB accounts show no hurry to cut rates, debate on declaring end of easing

• ECB’s Kazaks says time is not ripe for a rate cut

Euro zone growth, inflation on benign path, keeping rate cut bets muted

Wall Street posts largest swing ever from red to green for the month of November

• Wall Street edges higher in thin post-holiday trade

It’s hard to believe OpenAI’s ChatGPT has only been around for three years!

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the recently ended 2025-Q3 decreased from +4.2% to +3.9% as economic data reports resume being reported following the end of the Senate Democrats’ government shutdown fiasco. The BEA’s official estimates of GDP for 2025-Q3 will likely be delayed into December 2025, which may happen around the time the GDPNow tool gets enough data to finally shift forward to 2025-Q4.

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of a Wall Street bull who is being served a Thanksgiving turkey that says ‘DECEMBER RATE CUT’ by a grumpy Federal Reserve official”.