Syria Post-Assad: A Success Story Or A Disaster In The Making?

I’m not an expert on Syria’s politics or Syrian society. I’ve read only one book about the country and its modern colonial creation after WWI. So take this analysis with a grain of salt.

I think the worse thing to happen to modern Syria, worse than the brutal war that was waged on it for over a decade, was Assad choosing to run to hide in Moscow. That decision validated his enemies and send the entire reign of his family down the drain. He should have stayed in Damascus and committed suicide once his army and allies abandoned him. 

But he never was a forceful or charismatic leader. He was cosplaying the role of one, much like his successor. It was his father who secured the throne, and there must have been a multitude of political factors why the Assad dynasty ruled for so long. An objective observer can’t point to brute force as the only reason. 

The Assad regime was a cunning fox, playing sides against each other to remain in power. It was an Alawite-led state that suppressed the Sunni majority, which, if left unchecked, can grow powerful and ambitious enough to overrun all the different minorities of Syria. 

From what I’ve gathered the Sunnis of Syria and Iraq don’t make for good rulers because of their racism and their religion. Just the other day, on the one year anniversary of Assad’s ouster, the largely Sunni crowds in the streets of Damascus were chanting for the murder of the Alawites. It’s clear these people haven’t learned anything from their recent violent history. They are still bloodthirsty and self-righteous. 

And they mean what they chant. It’s not just empty bravado.

The Sunnis of that region, when secure in political power, take no prisoners. We saw what happened when ISIS, backed by Western, Turkish, Saudi, and Israeli intelligence agencies, got its hands on advanced weapons. They attracted a global cult following, and started massacring everybody who didn’t share their religious creed. 

Now, a leader and technician from that movement, has fully seized the Syrian state, put on a new Western-provided uniform, and is cosplsaying as an enlightened ruler with simple and pragmatic ambitions.

It’s a political fantasy, a wish. The reality is he’s the same person who directed suicide bombing missions and waged war on Syrian civilians in towns and cities that showed resistance to his terrorist group. 

Those in Syria who remember his past criminal acts aren’t fooled by his words.