Not happening.

Not so fast, naysayers. El Predicto ain’t done yet. Here are some things that won’t happen. Honest.

The real estate market will not collapse in 2026. Sales nationally will be about what they were in 2025 and the year before. Figure on between 470,000 and 480,000. Roughly 76,000 of those will be in the GTA. The widespread GenZ belief that ‘nobody’ is buying real estate so therefore prices will crash is hopium. Don’t these people do AI?

Interest rates will not crumble in 2026. Yeah, yeah, the US Fed will be getting a new boss soon. Trump is asking the Supremes for the okay to punt a key Fed board member so he can influence things and force rates down. We know that he’s desperate for lower money costs to paper over the tariff disaster, trick people into thinking living costs are lower and ease the cost of financing his rocketing federal deficit. And we know the Bank of Canada follows the Fed over 90% of the time.

But not this time. Our guys have a policy rate of 2.25%. Theirs is 3.5%. That’s a huge premium. Our inflation rate is 2.2% and appears stable. Theirs is 2.7%, but expected to rise. Our jobless rate is going down. Theirs is rising. We have a boring career central banker and George Clooney close as PM. They have a reality TV personality, convicted felon and real estate grifter in charge who’s busy naming stuff (theatres, coins, buildings, trust accounts, battleships) after himself as leader. Our CB is crusty independent. Theirs is about to become MAGA political.

Nope, we’re not going there.

Mark Carney will not fail in 2026. There will be no confidence vote that his government loses. No federal election. No leadership review. No caucus defections. Pierre Poilievre will surely win a renewed party mandate next month but he will never be prime minister. Carney is moving federal politics back into the centre – where the majority of Canadians live. He is putting air between us and America. He is unwoke, rational and authentic, and smart enough to follow a pragmatic path for Canada – whether policies are hatched,  stolen or borrowed. Carney has reduced PP to a caricature of himself.

Alberta’s not leaving. Ever. The current provincial government has been playing footsie with the Wexit separatists, which may end up destroying Danielle Smith. Stupidly, politically, destructively, the province will allow a referendum question on separation in 2026. It will fail, but still do damage. The traitors within her own party will never be satisfied with the outcome, and are recently emboldened by the 51st state support of the interventionist Yanks. A misguided faction thinks an Albertan nation of five million can be wealthier than as part of Canada, with so few people forced to finance a police force, a pension plan, a big hunk of government debt, a tax system and much more while corporations, investors and citizens (and their money) flee to more stable regions.

Moreover, there can be no separation without acquiescence from the rest of Canada and Parliament. It’s madness. Smith is incapable of rising to her responsibilities as a premier. Gutless and afloat, she is doomed.

“Far right loonies, Trumpers, The Alberta prosperity party, Wexit, Alberta Republicans and a few goofball splinter groups are raising puny hell,” writes blog dog Ted from Calgary. “The Progressive Conservatives had some nutters but managed to keep a lid on them but the UCP is rife with nutbars. Given enough time they invariably get to fighting, like a wedding with an open bar, then they dry up and blow away, but this time has us worried.  American influence and maybe cash can add fuel to the smouldering rags by the furnace.”

“The UCP plays from the Trump, Poilievre play book, attack, accuse the opponent of the sleazy stuff you yourself are doing, ad hominem attack, hurl, spray, gush vitriol and just plain lie.  They do not have the interests of Albertans in mind. They are dangerous to Canada.”

Finally, we’re not giving in. Not quitting. Not surrendering to the Americans, their unhinged president, the nihilism of our opposition, the disruptors and opportunists, the moany whining of entitled people, the racism oozing out of social media or the greed and materialism that’s created so many transactional Canadians.

It’s not perfect here. But next year we get closer.

About the picture: “Charlie is not my dog but my wife and I get to have him over for a sleep over about once a week,” writes Mike. “He is a Chinese rescue that once lived beside us. He is not a people person dog but he loves to meet other dogs. This jeep is just up the street from his home near Bayfront Park in Hamilton.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/12/30/not-happening-3/