#Economy & #Stocks Review - The Majority Can't Time Or Gamble With Consistency
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| E&S Review |
Much of today’s economic data, including officially collected and produced time series, is highly unreliable. Statisticians use well-documented techniques such as geometric smoothing, seasonal adjustments, substitution, double counting, and hedonic adjustments to modify economic outcomes dating back to the 1980s. Politicians and central bankers often leverage these techniques for political gain.
Data manipulated by these statistical methods are frequently revised without clear notification to the public, especially when administrations or public policies change.
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The Majority Can’t Time Or Gamble With Consistency
Will the US enter recession by 2027? AI response, which read like a child’s book report,
It’s impossible to say with certainty — but based on the most recent data and expert forecasts, it’s plausible that the U.S. could experience a recession by 2027, though many analysts view a mild slowdown (rather than a sharp recession) as more likely. Here’s a short summary of how things look now.
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The odds of a U.S. recession by 2027 are higher than plausible. The minority must be prepared. The economic cycle is expected to remain down into 2028, and the only thing propping up the U.S. economy is capital flowing from peripheral economies into the core. Prediction markets currently place the odds at 28%. Our model indicates that the economy is either expanding or contracting on the margin. If the Economic Activity Composite (EAC)’s LTCO and ITCO fall below 0, it doesn’t matter what Kalshi or Polymarket predicts — the majority, which cannot consistently time or bet trends, will face many unexpected outcomes by 2027.
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Economic Activity Composite (EAC)
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Source: http://www.edegrootinsights.com/2025/12/economy-stocks-review-majority-cant.html
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