#Soybeans Review $SOYB #ZS_F - Trade Wars Have Consequences

Soybeans Review

Short-term price fluctuations do not influence long-term trends, cycles, and profitability. The majority, guided by price trends and emotions, concentrate on short-term trading noise rather than cyclical trends of price, time, and energy. This focus creates confusion, frustration, missed chances, and typically leaves them holding the bag during trend shifts. Investors can sidestep this pattern by embracing the Evolution of the Trade and aligning with the minority.

Soybeans’ overall trend, revealed by trends of price, leverage, and time, are defined and discussed in The Matrix for subscribers.

Subscriber Comments

Trade Wars Have Consequences

U.S. producers face growing uncertainty as trade tensions rise, especially with China and Russia. China has halted U.S. soybean purchases for the first time since 2018, using agriculture as leverage ahead of high-stakes talks. President Trump plans to meet with President Xi on October 29, with demands including soybean buys, fentanyl controls, and no rare-earths squeeze. If unmet, Trump is threatening tariffs up to 100%, putting farm exports at risk. Meanwhile, U.S. trade officials are also reengaging with Russia and India, while Ag groups stress the importance of protecting the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) amid broader global trade pressures. Farmers are urged to prepare for continued market volatility and export uncertainty.

Click To Read

Use your Subscription Level Access Code to access the full review.

Soybean ETN

In a sharp escalation of the U.S.-China trade war, the United States exported zero soybeans to China in September, the first such drop since November 2018. Amid rising mutual distrust, both countries are accelerating efforts to cut dependencies, especially in agriculture. China’s tariffs on U.S. farm products have reached about 34%, forcing American farmers, who harvested 4.3 billion bushels of soybeans, hunting for alternative markets.

The trade war, which many within the majority thought would place America on a winning path, has crushed the American farmer. Bean’s primary downtrend, discussed further in the Soybeans Report, have been down for 17 months (see Chart). Updating the report beyond our last discussion has proven challenging. The loss of Energy (DI) during the government shutdown has obscured our view of accumulation or distribution within the cause-building (consolidation) that started in 2024.

Chart: Soybean Primary Trend

China’s past dependence on U.S. soybeans stemmed from its shift toward industrialization. The ongoing trade war, pitched as part of the America first agenda, has disrupted that relationship. The economic fallout is spreading beyond farm states like Kansas, Iowa, and North Dakota, where up to 70% of soybeans sold to China are produced. The disruption has caused land prices to decline, rising loan defaults, and increased farm foreclosures. The USDA is covering about a third of the export-related losses, but the sector has already lost billions.

Meanwhile, China has restructured its supply chain. Brazil and Argentina account for 85% and 9% of total imports. China is also stockpiling reserves to avoid future leverage by foreign suppliers.

U.S. net farm income for row crop producers is projected to drop 20% this year, mainly due to lost soybean exports, which have plummeted from 985 million bushels to 218 million year-over-year.

South American nations are increasing output and seizing market share. Global agricultural trade flows are shifting fast, and few within the Agricultural department seem worried about it. If U.S.–China negotiations fail before Brazil’s next harvest, American farmers could face even deeper losses, potential capital flight, and tighter trade restrictions. Please join the Soybean, Corn, and Wheat Report to better track the invisible hand. Markets move faster than official policy. Official policy that the computer warned through long-standing primary trends and energy would cause major problems.

Follow me on ð• or Facebook for further discussion.

———————————-

The Matrix provides market-driven trend, cycles, and intermarket analysis.

Source: http://www.edegrootinsights.com/2025/10/soybeans-review-soyb-zsf-trade-wars.html