Let’s Take a Quick Pause and Look Back at History

In light of this week’s roller-coaster gold ride, I thought it would be useful to turn once again back to the lessons of history and revisit what we discussed recently about the 1970s.

Foreign governments and central banks around the world had been becoming increasingly concerned about the US government’s outrageous fiscal deficits as early as the mid-1960s.

French President Charles de Gaulle sounded the alarm about America’s costly war in Vietnam, combined with historic welfare spending, and he began demanding that the Treasury Department redeem a portion of France’s US dollar holdings for gold.

Decades ago, that was his right because under the post–World War II Bretton Woods system, the US dollar was convertible into gold at a rate of $35 per ounce.

By 1971, foreigners’ demands to exchange their dollars for gold had become so great that Richard Nixon formally ended the convertibility once and for all.

Nixon downplayed any impact, telling Americans on August 15, 1971, “your dollar will be worth just as much tomorrow as it is today.”

The reality is the dollar went on to lose 75% of its value throughout the course of the decade. And if anything, Nixon’s move only encouraged foreigners to dump their dollars at an even more rapid pace.

As a result, the price of gold skyrocketed fivefold as governments and central banks around the world diversified out of the dollar and into gold.

We’ve been seeing this same move over the past couple of years—insatiable foreign and central bank appetite has driven gold prices from $1,800 a couple of years ago to over $4,000 today.

Obviously, over the past few months, there has been a lot of individual investor capital flowing into ETFs, hedge fund speculation, and similar vehicles. But in the long run, gold’s rise has been—and will continue to be—driven by foreign government and central bank diversification out of the dollar.

In 1975, gold hit a temporary peak at around $185 per ounce. After a period of consolidation, in which there was a significant price correction, gold then resumed its ascent, rising all the way to $850.

The point is that regardless of any short-term price correction, the fundamental driver—foreign governments and central banks diversifying out of the US dollar—hadn’t changed.

It took the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 to finally restore credibility in the US government’s finances. Reagan, of course, campaigned on cutting the deficit, sparking a long-term trend which culminated in multiple budget surpluses in the late 1990s.

This renewed confidence in US government finances is what ultimately reversed the trend on gold prices, causing the price to collapse below $300 by the end of the 90s.

I believe we’re in a similar situation today as in 1975.

Gold had a significant correction earlier this week, but the price remained above $4,000.

Perhaps this is the start of a lull period, or even a correction phase as in 1975, but it doesn’t fundamentally change the story right now: foreign governments and central banks are aggressively trying to diversify their US dollar strategic reserves, and gold is one of the only assets that makes sense.

I’m not here to say “buy gold” at $4,000. But based on the trajectory of the US government’s finances, the price of gold should go much higher over the next few years.

I don’t say this because I’m a “gold bug.” I don’t have any irrational fascination with a piece of metal. Rather, my outlook is based on a clear understanding of global central banking and strategic reserve assets, coupled with the obvious deterioration in the US government’s fiscal condition.

But I also understand that after an almost uninterrupted and astonishing rise to nearly $4,400, gold may be due for a correction—similar to what happened in 1975.

The reality is, no one knows for sure. Gold could just as easily rise to $5,000 as drop to $3,500.

I’d point out, however, that there are still a number of high-quality gold, platinum, and silver businesses that are wildly undervalued and extremely profitable—and they will continue to be extremely profitable even if there is a steep decline in gold prices.

For example, one of the companies we featured in our premium investment research service is producing gold at a price of just $1,000 per ounce. This means the price of gold could fall below $3,000, and this company would still be making money hand over fist—and trading at just 5x earnings based on today’s stock price.

Did I mention they pay a handsome dividend?

To me, the long-term case for gold is crystal clear—foreign governments and central banks will continue to by gold unless there is a fundamental change in Congress’s attitude toward the US budget deficit. And I don’t see that happening anytime soon.

The short-term case for gold over the next couple of months is anyone’s guess. It could go higher, it could go lower. And that’s why I think some of these ultra-cheap, highly profitable, well-managed, largely debt-free gold companies are really worth considering.

When the long-term case for gold is so obvious, it’s a sensible strategy to own a business that has so much gold exposure, pays a dividend, and can continue to be extremely profitable—even if there’s a short-term gold correction.

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Source

Simon Black is an international investor, entrepreneur and permanent traveler. His daily letter is both educational and entertaining, and we suggest that those who want unbiased, actionable information about global opportunities sign up for Sovereign Man’s free, actionable newsletter at http://www.SovereignMan.com.

From Simon Black of SovereignMan.com

Source: https://www.schiffsovereign.com/trends/lets-take-a-quick-pause-and-look-back-at-history-153763/