Summer 2025 Snapshot of Expected Future S&P 500 Earnings
Every three months, we take a snapshot of the expectations for future earnings in the S&P 500 (Index: SPX) at approximately the midpoint of the current quarter, shortly after most U.S. firms have announced their previous quarter’s earnings.
The latest snapshot was snapped 96 days after the Spring 2025 snapshot. The outlook for earnings has improved since last quarter’s snapshot, with slightly higher earnings expected in the remaining quarters of 2025 than what was anticipated three months ago.
In fact, it’s probably better to describe the outlook for dividends as having stabilized over the past three months. Which itself is remarkable because the quarter has seen a revival in the fortunes of AI technology firms and multiple trade deals. Both changes are significant since much of the decline in the outlook for earnings came after the AI-bubble deflated and President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, which both negatively affected earnings expectations for S&P 500 companies.
The following chart, covering how earnings expectations have changed from the end of 2021 through 13 August 2025:
The current projection for the S&P 500′s earnings per share through the end of 2025 is $242.27, which would represent 15.3% year-over-year earnings growth over December 2024′s finalized level of $210.17.
Looking further forward through the index’ expected earnings per share through the end of 2026, Standard & Poor projects the S&P 500′s earnings per share will be $277.12, which would represent year-over-year earnings growth of 14.4% above the current projection for the index’ December 2025 earnings per share.
Reference
Silverblatt, Howard. Standard & Poor. S&P 500 Earnings and Estimates. [Excel Spreadsheet]. 13 August 2025. Accessed 15 August 2025.
Image Credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “A crystal ball with the word ‘SP 500′ written inside it”. And ‘Earnings’ written above it, which we added.
Source: https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2025/08/summer-2025-snapshot-of-expected-future.html
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