S&P 500 Looking at Fed for Direction on Interest Rates

The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) kept marching on to new heights in the trading week ending on Friday, 18 July 2025. The index hit a new record high of 6,297.36 on Thursday before dipping to 6,296.79 to end the week about 0.6% higher than the previous week’s close.

That’s despite the ongoing debate among Federal Reserve officials on how to set interest rates. Inflation data released during the week continues to defy the belief of some Fed officials that tariffs will someday cause widespread inflation, which would push the Fed to keep rates higher, while others are growing concerned by the slowing growth of the U.S. economy, which would prompt the Fed to lower interest rates.

Speaking of slowing growth, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 declined to +2.4% from the +2.6% level it forecast a week earlier. The forecast for growth in the current quarter has been slowing throughout the quarter.

With the Fed’s Open Market Committee meeting next week, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is projecting the Fed will continue to hold the Federal Funds Rate in a target range of 4.25-4.50% until its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting when it is expected to cut the rate by a quarter percent. Beyond that date, the FedWatch tool anticipates additional quarter point rate cuts at 12-week intervals on 10 December (2025-Q4), 18 March (2026-Q1), and 17 June (2026-Q2).

For the alternative futures-based model, the growing attention on what the Fed will be doing with interest rates appears to have prompted a shift in the forward-looking focus of investors from 2026-Q2 toward the nearer-term future quarter of 2026-Q1.

Here are the market-moving headlines, such as they were, on the trading week ending on Friday, 18 July 2025.

Monday, 14 July 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• Trump intensifies trade war with threat of 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico

• Trump demands more concessions as EU holds off on US tariff countermeasures

Trump tariffs would lift US factory jobs, cut overall income, San Francisco Fed says

Oil falls 1% as Trump gives Russia 50 days to avoid new sanctions

Fed minion says they see no reason to cut interest rates now:

• Fed’s Hammack sees no urgent reason to lower rates – Fox Business

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s exporters rush to beat Trump’s next big tariff deadline

Eurozone minions looking for US trade deal, ECB minions expected to pause rate cuts:

• EU to push for deal with U.S, to avoid prohibitive tariff

• EU ready to hit US with 21-bln-euro tariff list, Italy foreign minister says
• Don’t panic: Europe Inc cautions calm as bloc tries to avert 30% US tariffs

Exclusive: Tariff threat complicates ECB’s July decision but won’t derail pause to rate cuts, sources say

Wall Street closed slightly higher as investors now brace for inflation and earnings data

• Wall Street ends with modest gains as investors await earnings, economic data

Tuesday, 15 July 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US consumer prices pick up in June; underlying inflation still tame

• CPI rises 0.3% M/M as expected in June; core CPI rises slightly less than consensus

Oil holds steady as Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia eases supply fears

Chief Fed minion’s job in jeopardy, other minions starting to think tariffs won’t cause much inflation:

• US Treasury Secretary Bessent says ‘formal process’ for Powell successor has started, Bloomberg News reports

• Fed’s Powell asks for watchdog review of project criticized by Trump officials
• Investors seek protection from risk of Fed chief’s ouster

Fed’s Collins urges patience on rates, says tariff hit may be more modest

Fed’s Logan sees holding rates steady a while longer

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China’s economy slows as consumers tighten belts, US tariff risks mount

• VIEW China’s Q2 GDP grows 5.2% y/y, above market forecast

China home prices fall at fastest pace in 8 months, stimulus calls rise

ECB minions wish they had a ‘steady hand’:

• ECB’s Nagel calls for ‘steady hand’ amid tariff turmoil

Wall Street closed mixed as the latest inflation and bank earnings data arrived

• Traders stick to bets on September Fed rate cut after inflation report

Wednesday, 16 July 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US producer prices unchanged; tariffs raise goods costs

• ‘Cool’ US Producer Prices Blow Up Tariff-Flation Narrative

Oil eases 1% as US fuel stock builds put focus on demand

US manufacturing output edges up in June

Chief Fed minion’s job in jeopardy, or not; another Fed minion claims inflation rising, but Fed’s survey of businesses doesn’t see it:

• Trump says he is not planning to fire Fed’s Powell

• Trump indicated to Republican lawmakers he will fire Fed’s Powell, CBS reports

Fed’s Bostic: Recent data show price pressures may be building

• Beige Book Spells Trouble For Powell: Mentions Of “Inflation” Tumble To 4 Year Low, As Growth Concerns Mount

US economic activity rises but outlook pessimistic, Fed says

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• Beneath China’s resilient economy, a life of pay cuts and side hustles

Wall Street ends higher after brief slump on Powell firing confusion

• Wall Street closed in the green as Trump targets Powell and softer PPI data arrived

Thursday, 17 July 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US retail sales growth, steady job market bolster Fed’s rate-cut delay
• Oil jumps after further drone attacks on Iraq oil fields
• US import prices rise marginally in June

Fed minions still planning to hold rates steady this month, still claiming tariffs will cause significant inflation, but thinking about cutting rates in months ahead and need better way of doing business:

• Fed’s Kugler: No rate cut for some time as tariffs pass through to prices
• Fed’s Williams says tariff economic impact is only just starting

• Fed’s Williams won’t comment on Trump attacks on central bank

Fed’s Bostic: Recent data show price pressures may be building -Fox Business

Fed’s Daly says ‘reasonable’ to expect two rate cuts before end of 2025

Ex-Fed Governor Warsh says new accord between Treasury, central bank needed

Bigger CO2 emissions developing in China:

• China’s record-breaking heat pushes power demand to new high

BOJ minions get reason to stop rate hikes, JapanGov minions negotiating tariffs with US:

• Japan’s exports drop as US tariffs hit automobiles, pressure set to intensify

• Japan exports drop 0.5% y/y in June

Japan holds US tariff talks with Lutnick, eyes meeting with Bessent

• Trump says US will stick to 25% tariff on Japan, may have deal with India soon

Eurozone minions see lurking gloom from US tariffs, ECB minions think economy looks steady:

• US tariffs would eat up German growth this year and next, Bundesbank chief says
• Euro zone economy, ECB outlook steady despite US tariff threats: Reuters poll

S&P 500, Nasdaq notch record closes as retail sales and earnings fuel rally

• Wall Street lifted as data, corporate earnings show consumer strength

Friday, 18 July 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:

• US single-family homebuilding hits 11-month low; building permits slump
• Trump signs stablecoin law as crypto industry aims for mainstream adoption
• Trump pushes for 15-20% minimum tariff on all EU goods, FT reports
• Oil steadies as mixed US economic and tariff news offset new Russia sanctions

• US drillers add oil/gas rigs for first time in 12 weeks, Baker Hughes says

Potential replacement Chief Fed minion pushes for rate cut, other Fed minion signals will use new tariff announcement as rationale opposing rate cut:

• Fed’s Waller pushes for July rate cut

• Waller says he’s willing to lead Fed if Trump asks, but no contact so far

Fed’s Goolsbee: new tariff announcements may delay rate cuts

• Fed’s rate-cut delay intact as inflation fears override Trump pressure

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/feds-powell-responds-white-house-fed-headquarters-renovation-2025-07-17/

Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:

• China says successful US trade talks make return to tariff war unnecessary
• China moves to encourage foreign reinvestment as FDI slumps
• China expected to keep lending rates steady, focus turns to Politburo meet

• Chinese automakers should pursue ‘rational competition’ in EV industry, official says

Stocks retreat from recent highs to end mixed as more Trump tariffs weigh on markets

• S&P, Nasdaq end on subdued note after brief dip on latest Trump tariff rumbling

Image credit: Microsoft Copilot Designer. Prompt: “An editorial cartoon of two Federal Reserve officials having an animated discussion about whether to cut US interest rates. One is pointing to a chart that says ‘SLOWING ECONOMY’ the other is pointing to a chart that says ‘TARIFFS MAY CAUSE INFLATION SOMEDAY’.”