Sorry, kids.

Polls, including the headscratcher published here this week, say the election is about Trump. The second most important issue is Trump. Followed of course by Trump.

But young voters see this through a different lens. The American president is an old man trying to recreate a lost world. When a couple in their late twenties reach mid-career, with a family in tow, the orange guy will be dust. And they still may not be able to afford a house.

So let’s take a minute to review what the Libs and the Cons are proposing to change this hard scenario.

First, reality. The real estate market – as detailed here yesterday – is comatose. New construction is largely silent while old projects move to completion. Housing starts are fading. The latest CMHC numbers confirm that (outside Montreal, the exception) Canada is failing to build the new homes that politicians endlessly promise and try to grease with public funds.

Annualized, starts were just 214,316 in March. Down again. In all the cities and towns in Canada with more than 10,000 people, the number fell 12.5% –  or fewer than 15,000 new units last month.

In Toronto and Vancouver, it’s a brewing disaster. The year/year drop last month in YVR was almost 60% and in the GTA, 65%. February’s numbers were equally weak.

You know why. Houses cost too much. Mortgage rates have been too high to improve affordability. Now everyone’s freaked out by tariffs and the potential for a recession, inflation and job loss. Meanwhile builders won’t build because buyers aren’t buying – and they need firm sales to even qualify for (very expensive) financing. Construction costs have escalated about 20% in a year, and now the trade war – with tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, reciprocal tariffs and sectoral tariffs – guarantee to make homebuilding more dear.

The perfect storm. About to get worse.

Pace of construction makes a mockery of promises

Source: CMHC

The point is that, at 214,000 starts a year, the political goals that were mapped out by our leaders are nothing but fiction. The Trudeau government promised four million new units by 2030 – but at this level the country will have built fewer than 1.5 million. That’s a 62% fail.

Now the Carney campaign says the goal is 500,000 a year – which would mean more than doubling the current build rate. That seems equally mythical, even with the proposed new government agency throwing up “innovative Canadian pre-fabricated housing”, backed with $25 billion in debt and $1 billion in equity.

The full Lib plan, which includes a GST chop is here.

The Polievre plan is also all about building more units. ‘Millions’ have been mentioned but the Cons are cagey about setting a stronger target. A PP government would also slice GST costs and mandate that communities increase new home starts by 15% a year or face financial penalties. (But cities and town don’t build homes – they only approve them. Builders needs buyers.)

Here is the Conservative plan, so far.

The other parties are irrelevant, destined to never come close to the levers of power.

Sales have dropped off dramatically. CREA reports a 9.3% year/year chop in March for resales. The most dismal situation since the Credit Crisis in 2009. New homes are far worse – an unmitigated disaster as documented here in recent weeks. And as mentioned yesterday, virtually every new major multi-family development on the books in the GTA has been nixed. No sales. No trades.

In the past two years, the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) says, the cost to erect a single-family home has risen by $42,000. Materials are up by a fifth and municipal levies by almost a third. Builder profits have vaporized, since lower buyer demand has squeezed prices.

What does this new home and construction meltdown mean?

Big price increases ahead, says the industry. New inventory will not be built until consumer confidence returns, order books fill, the economy feels more hopeful and jobs blossom. By then (whenever it occurs – perhaps post-Trump) demand will have built and the population increased but supply will sit at 2025 levels.

Canadian families will look to government to deal with that new housing crisis.

Let’s hope the fibbing and false hope are gone.

About the picture: “Hi Garth. Daily reader,” writes  Ingrid. “Thanks for your wise words. Finally took your advice and got a dog. Meet Teddy the Rat Terrier.”

To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘garth@garth.ca’.

Source: https://www.greaterfool.ca/2025/04/16/sorry-kids-2/