Newsom’s lame duck budget confirms prison population is falling

California must name the next prison closures and release elders

by Olivia Gleason, CURB

Sacramento, Calif. — Gov. Gavin Newsom’s Proposed 2026–27 Budget underscores what advocates and fiscal experts have long noted: Prison closures generate significant, ongoing General Fund savings as California’s prison population declines. The California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) credits prison and facility closures, deactivations and contract terminations with approximately $4.9 billion in cumulative savings by 2027–28, yet the budget does not identify additional prisons for closure beyond the previously announced plan to close the California Rehabilitation Center (Norco) by October 2026. CDCR reports that prison closures are projected to save about $594 million annually by 2027–28.

The budget also revises downward recent assumptions about growth in incarceration. CDCR projects the average daily incarcerated population will continue to decline and estimates Proposition 36 will increase the prison population by 562 in 2025–26 and approximately 1,200 upon full implementation, which is far lower than earlier projections.

While existing closure commitments represent an important step forward, the overall cost of incarceration remains unsustainable. The budget highlights a growing crisis that will continue to drive costs upward: California is incarcerating more than 19,000 people aged 55 and older.

“Abysmally low elder parole grant rates and extreme sentencing have turned prisons into expensive nursing homes,” said Dax Proctor, statewide coordinator for Californians United for a Responsible Budget (CURB), a coalition of more than 100 organizations that affirms at least six more state prisons can close. 

“Incarcerating elderly, low-risk people can cost $200,000–$300,000+ per person each year. That’s an inhumane, fiscally reckless policy choice. It doesn’t improve public safety. There is no public safety justification for keeping people living with dementia and terminal illness behind bars.”

State fiscal analysts have warned California faces larger multi-year budget shortfalls ahead, and local governments have cautioned that federal cost shifts could hit health and human services that communities rely on. Advocates say the state is missing an opportunity to offset cuts to vital services by maintaining a $14.2 billion budget for CDCR and failing to close additional state prisons.

“California’s prison population has been declining for 15 years. The Legislature passed AB 2178 (Ting) in 2024 to eliminate excess prison beds and build long-term savings, and Gov. Newsom rejected it,” said CURB Executive Director Amber-Rose Howard. “As empty beds keep growing, the state needs to close more prisons and redirect the savings to meet basic needs.”

CURB calls on the state Legislature to require CDCR and the Department of Finance to identify additional prisons for closure on a clear timeline aligned with population decline, expand and strengthen pathways to release — especially for elders and medically vulnerable people — and redirect closure savings into community-based services that create real safety and stability.

To learn more, contact Olivia Gleason at olivia@curbprisonspending.org.

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