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Last winter started off on the warmer side, then looked what happened. We were socked like never before, with an absolutely, brutal, horrendously cold winter throughout the Whole Northeast that relentlessly persisted. This guy Judah Cohen called it.

Well, I have a local weather station reporting 58 degrees on December 14th on Long Island, now that is unusual for this time of year! 

Judah Cohen the expert who takes into consideration many factors that influence his forecast. The Siberian snow cover in the Fall is one of the instruments he uses to base his forecasts on.

It’s been so warm here this winter. I wanted to go see if I could find out how Siberian snow cover was this past October, and found this article here. Indications are that it might eventually get cold in the Northeast this Winter, although not nearly as brutal as last year, yay!

NOAA should get their act together, and jump on this Siberian snow covered wagon. lol

So which one will win out? Will it remain the El Nino shuffle, or will the moderately snow covered Siberia be the winning factor. To send the eventual push of Cold air down upon us, so we can do the Polar Vortex twist?! 

Siberian Snow Cover:

For October 17th, I have placed last year’s North Hemisphere snow cover anomaly map side-by-side with this year’s map:

Granted, the positive anomaly of Siberian snow cover was a bit more impressive last year. But the spread of Eurasian snow cover this year is still well ahead of the climatological norm.

The relative lack of snow cover in western Canada and Alaska indicates the warm PDO+ that dominated last winter will likely be a major player this winter.

Also, note the very healthy positive snow anomaly in eastern Canada this year! That’s another good sign for us.

The big picture favors a continued rapid spread of snow cover in Eurasia through the end of October into early November with a negative Arctic Oscillation pattern (AO-) suppressing the polar vortices (PV)southward:

NOAA has been slow to embrace Dr. Judah Cohen’s research with Siberian snow cover as a predictor of long term AO- and subsequent cold winters in the eastern United States.

The empirical evidence from last winter suggests that NOAA should place more weight on Cohen’s work because his outlook for December-January-February last winter absolutely crushed it:

If anything, last winter was even colder in the eastern United States than Cohen suggested it would be. But his temperature outlook was light years ahead of the curve compared to NOAA’s weak outlook for last winter:

Washington Post reports: 

Every October, seasonal forecasters pay close attention to the trends in snow cover in Siberia, as they have shown to have some relationship with winter weather conditions in the eastern United States. When Siberian autumn snow is expansive and increases quickly, it tends to favor a cold winter in the East; whereas, when it’s scarce, a mild winter is more likely.

The meteorologist who discovered this relationship, Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research, says this October’s Siberian snow cover is off to a fast start, which may portend another cold winter for the East.

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“I think that [the Siberian snow cover] will be above normal,” Cohen said in an e-mail. “[But] it is lagging the two blockbuster Octobers of the past two years.”

[AccuWeather winter forecast: Not as ‘brutal’ as last year in Mid-Atlantic and Northeast]

In technical terms, above normal Siberian snow cover in the fall is strongly linked to the negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) during winter. A negative AO is associated with a weaker polar jet stream that tends to stray more into the mid-latitudes, unleashing blasts of Arctic air.

“The predictors that I look at all seem to be indicating to me a negative bias for the upcoming winter AO,” Cohen said. “Of course, a negative AO increases the chance of a cold winter in the eastern U.S.”

[Local persimmons, acorns and hickory nuts are forecasting a harsh winter in D.C.]

Last October, snow cover over Siberia increased at a furious clip and spanned the second greatest area since records began in 1972. “The signal from the snow cover was both strong and consistent,” Cohen said heading into last winter.

Based on the snow cover behavior, Cohen forecast a colder than normal winter for the eastern U.S. He was not only right that the winter would be a cold one, but also accurately forecast that the second half of winter would be significantly colder than the first half.

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