Senate Democrats Might Not Have November In The Bag

Based on various polls, Democrats are leading Republicans by roughly five to six points on the generic congressional ballot. While this certainly means they have an advantage, the numbers actually show real trouble for the Democrats for this year’s midterm elections.

And even CNN isn’t trying to sugarcoat it for the Democratic Party.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten took a hard look at the numbers, and the picture for Democrats is not what most might expect. They should have a much bigger lead, and the fact that they don’t is a huge red flag.

“This lead is historically low for Democrats at this point with a Republican president,” Enten pointed out. “On average, their lead is actually slightly less. It’s five points. That’s less than it was back in 2018 when it was eight points and way less than it was during the 2006 cycle when it was 11 points.”

According to Enten, there’s a huge disparity between how Democrats are performing in generic congressional ballot polling and President Donald Trump’s approval ratings. Trump’s net approval rating is somewhere between -20 and -30 points. This is not a strong position for the party in power. Combined with the historical precedent that midterm elections usually favor the minority party, the numbers should spell disaster for the Republican Party, but it’s not.

“You’d make the argument Democrats should be way ahead, and they’re just only sort of slightly ahead.“

A small shift might be enough for Democrats to take the House, but the Senate is a completely different animal, and according to Enten, the numbers suggest Democrats’ hopes of winning the Senate are not good.

The math is brutal. Even in a blue wave scenario where Democrats flip every competitive seat, Republicans would still hold the Senate 51-49 because Trump carried states like Ohio, Texas, and Alaska by more than ten points. In this scenario, Democrats would pick up North Carolina and Maine, which would be a huge let down for the GOP, but that’s not enough to flip the upper chamber. 

For years, Democrats have fantasized about flipping Texas, and they think that James Talarico is the perfect candidate to make it happen. But as Enten noted, Democrats have never been able to flip Senate seats that Trump won by 10 points or more.

So, what’s holding the Democrats back? Favorability, or the lack thereof. 

In 2018, Democrats held a 12-point net favorability advantage over Republicans at this stage of the cycle. In 2006, that gap was 18 points. Today? Republicans are actually ahead on net favorability by five points.

“Democrats are just, simply put, running behind their previous benchmarks,” Enten said, “and they need to be running well ahead of them if they want to take back the United States Senate.”

HOLY CRAP! Even CNN was just forced to report that REPUBLICANS are leading net favorability by +5 points ahead of the 2026 midterms

That is HUGE, given in 2018, Democrats were +12

“Look at this. Party ahead, midterm year with GOP president? Republicans actually AHEAD by 5… pic.twitter.com/CgfJqWYezB

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) April 6, 2026

Democrats have spent months positioning themselves as the resistance to Trump’s second term, betting that public anger at the administration would carry them into the majority and give them the power actually to block his agenda. But if voters dislike Democrats even more than they dislike Republicans, that entire strategy blows up. A six-point generic ballot lead just won’t cut it if Democrats want to win back the Senate.

This, of course, is a huge problem for Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, whose future in party leadership is in doubt. Senate Democrats are growing increasingly restless with him – and more importantly, with the strategy he’s banking on for the midterms. 

Schumer has been supporting more centrist picks he believes have a better shot at winning their elections, while more progressive candidates are being sidelined. According to reports, some lawmakers have already begun informally counting votes to see whether there’s enough support to make a move. He may have the votes to survive a challenge now, but if Democrats fail to win back the Senate, the blame is going to land squarely on him.

Even without control of the Senate, Donald Trump still holds a powerful advantage where it matters most: the courts. Democrats no longer have the judicial filibuster at their disposal, which means they’ve lost one of their last tools for stalling or blocking nominees. So even if they manage to flip the House, it won’t stop Trump from reshaping the judiciary. Judicial confirmations—and even potential Supreme Court appointments – can still move forward, ensuring his influence on the courts endures well beyond his time in office.