Adam Back Says Quantum Threat To Bitcoin Is Decades Away, Urges Gradual Migration To Post-Quantum Security

Authored by Micah Zimmerman via BitcoinMagazine.com,

Blockstream CEO Adam Back pushed back on concerns that quantum computing poses an imminent threat to Bitcoin’s cryptographic security, arguing that current progress in the field remains far from the level required to break real-world encryption.

Speaking in an interview with Bloomberg, Back noted that much of today’s quantum research is still in its early experimental phase. He pointed to the limited capabilities of existing quantum hardware, which often lacks full error correction and has only demonstrated trivial computations.

“The biggest calculation it’s performed is factoring 21 into 7 times 3,” he said, emphasizing that today’s machines remain closer to laboratory prototypes than practical computing systems.

While recent academic work has highlighted potential algorithmic improvements, Back argued that these advances do not yet translate into meaningful hardware capability. 

As a result, he said, the prospect of quantum computers capable of threatening Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography remains “decades off,” though he acknowledged uncertainty around exact timelines.

Earlier today, Adam Back was named by the New York Times as the most credible candidate for Satoshi Nakamoto based on stylometric analysis of early cypherpunk writings, but Back and other experts strongly denied the claim, noting there is no hard evidence linking him to Bitcoin’s creation.

Bitcoin should prepare for quantum computing risks

Despite that long horizon, Back stressed that the Bitcoin ecosystem should begin preparing now. He advocated for a gradual migration path toward quantum-resistant signature schemes, giving users and custodians ample time to update keys and infrastructure without disruption. 

He noted that Blockstream’s research team has been actively working on post-quantum approaches and has already contributed implementations to Liquid, a Bitcoin layer-two network that has historically served as a testing ground for new features.

Back also referenced recent progress in standardization efforts, pointing to the National Institute of Standards and Technology’s approval of post-quantum cryptography standards in late 2024 as a key milestone that could accelerate industry adoption.

Beyond quantum computing, Back dismissed concerns that artificial intelligence or artificial general intelligence pose structural risks to Bitcoin, characterizing AI instead as a productivity tool that can assist researchers and engineers rather than compromise cryptographic systems.

Shifting to Bitcoin’s global role, Back described the asset as best understood as “digital gold,” coexisting alongside national monetary systems rather than replacing them. He pointed to ongoing sovereign interest in Bitcoin, including debates around national reserves and monetary frameworks in countries such as El Salvador, as evidence of gradual institutional adoption. He also referenced discussions in Switzerland about monetary reform and the historical appeal of gold-backed standards.