Russia Faces Five Geostrategic Challenges As The Special Operation Enters Its Fifth Year

Authored by Andrew Korybko,

As it’s always done, Russia is expected to ensure its sovereignty, security, and thus its survival through the creative interplay between its political, military, intelligence, diplomatic, expert, and civil society communities.

Russia’s special operation against NATO-backed Ukraine just entered its fifth year.

The last three anniversaries were reflected upon here, here, and here, and keeping with tradition, the present piece will review what happened over the past year and forecast what might be come in the next one.

Generally speaking, Russia now faces five geostrategic challenges that are expected to shape its approach towards the US-mediated peace talks with Ukraine and its grand strategy overall, namely:

* NATO Influence Is Poised To Expand Along Russia’s Entire Southern Periphery

Last August’s “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) along Armenia’s southern Syunik Province has the dual function of a NATO military-logistics corridor through the South Caucasus to Central Asia. Spearheaded by member state Turkiye with allied Azerbaijan serving as the launchpad across the Caspian, TRIPP threatens to revolutionize Russia’s regional security situation for the worse if these threats aren’t contained, especially if it emboldens Kazakhstan to follow in Ukraine’s footsteps.

* The US Supports The Revival Of Poland’s Long-Lost Great Power Status

“September 2025 Was The Most Eventful Month For Poland Since The End Of Communism” for the 18 reasons enumerated in the preceding hyperlinked analysis, which set Poland up to play a central role in the US’ National Security Strategy for containing Russia after the Ukrainian Conflict ends. It already has the EU’s largest army, is located in the middle of pivotal military-logistics corridors, and is very eager to revive its long-lost Great Power status and attendant historical rivalry with Russia at Moscow’s expense.

* The EU Is Unprecedentedly Militarizing And Upgrading Its Military-Logistics

De facto EU leader “Germany Is Competing With Poland To Lead Russia’s Containment” in no small part through the nearly $100 billion in defense procurement projects that it approved last year alone. The EU as a whole is also militarizing too with the help of the €800 billion “ReArm Europe Plan”. To make matters even more concerning for Russia, the “military Schengen” for optimizing the dispatch of troops and equipment towards its borders continues apace, with the Baltic States newly committing to join this too.

* India Seems To Be Undergoing A US-Friendly Grand Strategic Recalibration

India began aligning with some of the US’ interests after their trade deal as explained here, which could eliminate tens of billions of dollars’ worth of Russian budgetary revenue if India does indeed reduce its import of Russian oil like the US claimed that it agreed to. The same goes for India possibly eschewing new big-ticket military-technical purposes from Russia too. This US-friendly grand strategic recalibration might also put more pressure on Russia’s top Chinese partner and therefore reshape Asian geopolitics.

* Poland Now Wants Nukes & Turkiye Might Soon Declare The Same Intent

The US’ decision to let the New START lapse risks a global nuclear arms race. Poland was emboldened to declare its nuclear intentions while RT published a detailed report about how Turkiye might go down this route too. Both are historical Russian rivals, and seeing as how Poland envisages carving out a sphere of influence in Central & Eastern Europe and Turkiye envisages one in Central Asia as was noted above, them obtaining nukes would pose a huge threat to Russia and raise the likelihood of its containment.

The five geostrategic challenges confronting Russia in the fifth year of its special operation are formidable but not insurmountable.

As it’s always done, Russia is expected to ensure its sovereignty, security, and thus its survival through the creative interplay between its political, military, intelligence, diplomatic, expert, and civil society communities.

They might opt to cut a deal with the US over Ukraine so as to focus more on tackling these challenges, but not at any cost, ergo why that hasn’t yet happened.