Polling Signals Serious Trouble For Democrats in Upcoming Midterms

Voters are delivering Democrats in Congress a brutal verdict heading into the 2026 midterm cycle, with just 18 percent approving of their performance and a staggering 73 percent disapproving, the worst rating Quinnipiac has recorded for them since it began asking the question in 2009. 

Even Democrats themselves are in open revolt: only 42 percent of Democratic voters approve of how their own party’s members in Congress are doing, while 48 percent now disapprove, a sharp slide from October when approval stood at 58 percent.

Among independents, things descend from terrible to apocalyptic for the Democrats. The gap between approval and disapproval is a huge 61 points, leaving Democrats almost universally despised among this key demographic. But the more shocking revelation came from within their own ranks: for the first time in Quinnipiac’s history, even Democrats themselves are giving congressional Democrats a thumbs down. Support among party voters has cratered 28 points since October—swinging from a positive 22 to a negative 6 in just two months. 

“A family squabble spills over into the holidays. Democratic voters want their party to hold the reins of the House but are not the least bit happy about what they are doing at the moment,” Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Republican voters are much more satisfied with how their party’s members in Congress are doing, with 77 percent expressing approval, and only 18 percent expressing disapproval.

The numbers are so bad for the Democrats that CNN’s chief data analyst, Harry Enten, couldn’t favorably spin this for the party. 

 “Democrats, in the minds of the American public, are lower than the Dead Sea,” Enten put it, twisting the knife with a geological metaphor that unfortunately fits. According to new Quinnipiac polling data, congressional Democrats are languishing at a net approval rating of -55 points, an almost comical nosedive that marks their worst showing in over twenty years of tracking. “They have never found Democrats, at least those in Congress, in worse shape than they are right now.”

Enten tried to diagnose how it all went so wrong so fast. He pointed back to October’s government shutdown, when Democrats saw what turned out to be their last flicker of momentum. “I think during the shutdown, there was a bit of a boost for Democrats, right? There was a rallying around the flag effect going on,” he said. “But Democrats did not like how that shutdown turned out.” In short, they got the brief sugar high, then the crash—and now they’re nursing a severe case of political hangover.

The fallout is already reaching individual lawmakers.

“One of the reasons that Dan Goldman is in trouble right now and a potential primary against Brad Ladner is because at this point, the Democratic base is so upset with Democrats,” Enten explained, adding his parting shot: “So even if the Democrats take back Congress, don’t be surprised if Dan Goldman ain’t there because of numbers like this one.”

Translation: victory might come, but not without casualties.

Even the supposedly good news isn’t really all that good. Democrats currently hold a four-point lead on the generic congressional ballot with a Republican president in office, a figure Enten conceded was “pathetically weak” by historical standards. For example, when they won back control of Congress in 2008 and 2018, Democrats led by double digits. Now, their advantage is less than half the normal cushion they’ve enjoyed in similar cycles.

Enten, ever the numbers guy, encouraged some patience while gently deflating any premature triumphalism.

“Yes, you’re on your way to a congressional majority… but it’s still a long time,” he cautioned.

“And with numbers like this, considerably weaker than historically speaking, it might be a tougher road to hoe than normally you would think.”

The data paints an unflattering portrait: a party so strategically dependent on Donald Trump’s unpopularity that it’s ignoring its own. Democrats appear to be counting on Trump’s toxicity to do the heavy lifting, but if their own negatives stay this high, his may not be enough to carry them over the finish line in next year’s midterm elections.