Wall Street Warns Of A Deepening Oil Glut In 2026

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

• Reuters’ monthly poll shows analysts expect WTI to average $59 in 2026 and Brent $62.23 amid persistent oversupply.

• Executives warn U.S. shale will stagnate or decline if WTI stays in the $50–$60 range.

• Goldman Sachs forecasts even lower prices and says the oil market won’t rebalance until 2027 after a final major supply wave.

Oversupplied markets will keep oil prices under pressure next year, and the U.S. benchmark will average below $60 per barrel, the monthly Reuters poll of analysts and economists showed on Friday.

The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, is expected to average $59 per barrel in 2026, according to the poll of 35 analysts and economists. That’s lower compared to the $60.23 per barrel forecast in last month’s survey.

The analysts expect Brent Crude, the international benchmark, to average $62.23 per barrel next year, down from $63.15 forecast in the Reuters poll in October.

Most experts cited rising supply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ as the key bearish factor for oil prices next year. But lingering geopolitical risks could put a floor under prices, the analysts reckon. 

At the current price of WTI oil, shale will stagnate or start to decline, industry executives say, while shale producers look to do more with less by raising efficiency in production and capital allocation.

Ryan Lance, chairman and CEO of ConocoPhillips, said that “At $60-$65 a barrel WTI oil prices, the US is probably plateau-ish.”

“But if prices stay at $60 or go into the $50s, you probably are plateauing or slightly declining,” the executive added.  

Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs said that oil prices are set to further drop into next year from current levels amid a large surplus on the market, with WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026.  

The oil market is set to rebalance in 2027 as 2026 will see “the last big oil supply wave the market has to work through,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last week. 

In the long term, supply growth will mostly come from OPEC, which has spare capacity and is investing in capacity expansion, according to Struyven.

Some modest growth could come from the U.S. shale patch, but this would require Brent at around $80 per barrel or so toward the end of the decade, according to Goldman Sachs.