It’s Quiet. Too Quiet
By Bas van Geffen, Senior Market Strategist at Rabobank
Today’s headlines are more of the same, which should spell bad news for longer-term government bonds. The long end of the Treasury curve has been struggling since President Trump moved to terminate Lisa Cook position at the Fed on Monday. However, considering the potential implications, markets have arguably been eerily calm in the face of this news. Long-term yields are up, but not massively, and Bloomberg headlines today that speculators have accumulated the biggest net short positions on the VIX index since 2022, essentially betting that the calm will last. Is that a setup to another volmageddon?
As my colleagues pointed out in this daily over the past couple of days, the president is trying to align the central bank with his broader agenda. So why stop here?
If the dismissal of Cook holds up in court, Trump-appointees will have a majority in the Fed’s Board of Governors. But the Federal Open Market Committee, which makes policy decisions, also consists of the presidents of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks. The next headline should therefore not be surprising. Bloomberg may be next: “They are basically an arm of the US government.”
So, as noted in yesterday’s daily, the US are taking a page from China’s playbook. Because markets alone cannot compete with China’s state-directed framework. Where does that leave Europe and its attempts to regain strategic autonomy?
Internally, France is descending into another political crisis after PM Bayrou called for a confidence vote on September 8. At 114%, Frances debt ratio is the third highest in the Eurozone, but the large budget deficit is particularly worrying. The minister of Finance said that he cannot rule out that the IMF may ultimately Tyler Durden Wed, 08/27/2025 – 13:05
Source: https://freedombunker.com/2025/08/27/its-quiet-too-quiet/
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