Delta Air Lines Restores Financial Guidance, Ignites Rally Across Airline Sector

Delta Air Lines soared in premarket trading in New York after reinstating its full-year earnings guidance—a clear signal the carrier expects resilient demand through the second half of the year. The upbeat outlook sparked a rally across the airline sector, lifting shares of peers including American Airlines, United Airlines, and several international carriers.

Delta posted second-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.10 on revenue of $15.51 billion. Analysts tracked by Bloomberg were expecting EPS of $2.07 from revenue of $15.45 billion. 

Delta Q2 2025 Earnings Summary (Adjusted Results vs. BBG Estimates):

EPS: $2.10 (vs. $2.07 est.)

Revenue: $15.51B (+0.6% y/y, vs. $15.45B est.)

• Passenger Revenue: $13.87B (+0.2% y/y, vs. $13.84B est.)

• Cargo Revenue: $212M (+6.5% y/y, vs. $206.4M est.)

Passenger Load Factor: 86% (vs. 87% y/y, est. 86.7%)

Available Seat Miles (ASM): 77.65B (+4% y/y, in line)

Revenue Passenger Miles (RPM): 66.42B (+1.8% y/y, below est. 67.33B)

Adjusted Net Income: $1.37B (-10% y/y, vs. $1.34B est.)

Yield per Passenger Mile: 20.88¢ (-1.6% y/y)

The key takeaway from the second quarter is that carriers narrowly beat earnings and revenue estimates, with cargo outperforming and passenger trends slightly below estimates. Yield and load factor slipped modestly. 

Investors were focused on Delta restoring its full-year guidance. Here’s an excerpt from the carrier’s press release:

• Restoring full year guidance with expectation for earnings per share of $5.25 to $6.25 and free cash flow of $3 to $4 billion

• Announced a 25 percent increase to dividend payment beginning in the September quarter

Ed Bastian, Delta’s chief executive officer, stated: 

“In the June quarter, Delta delivered record revenue on a 13 percent operating margin, generating $1.8 billion in pre-tax profit and leading network peers across key operational metrics.  This strong performance is a direct reflection of the outstanding contributions of our people, who continue to set the bar for industry performance.

“As we look to the second half of our centennial year, we remain focused on executing our strategic priorities and managing the levers within our control to deliver strong earnings and cash flow.  Reflecting our confidence in the business, we are restoring financial guidance with an expectation for earnings per share of $5.25 to $6.25 and free cash flow of $3 to $4 billion, consistent with our long-term free cash flow targets.”

Delta Full-Year 2025 Outlook (Updated Forecast):

• Adjusted EPS: $5.25–$6.25 (vs. $5.35 Bloomberg consensus)

• Adjusted Free Cash Flow: $3B–$4B (vs. $2.63B est.)

• Adjusted Gross Leverage: Expected to fall below 2.5x

The stock rose 12.5% to $57.10 in premarket trading. Shares have languished so far this year, down 16.2% year-to-date (as of Wednesday’s close). 

UBS Analyst Commentary (Earlier This Week):

The news lifted industry peers in premarket trading, including American Airlines Group (+5.2%), United Airlines Holdings (+6.6%), Southwest Airlines (+1.9%), JetBlue Airways (+2.1%), and Alaska Air Group (+3.1%).