June Gloom Hits Consumer Confidence After Gay May; Inflation Expectations Plunge

After surging by the most in 14 years in May, analysts expected this morning’s June data for The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index to continue to rebound in June.

However, it did not. The headline Confidence print disappointed, dropping from an upwardly revised 98.4 to 93.0 with future expectations dropping, but Present Situation tumbling to its weakest since Sept 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

“Consumer confidence weakened in June, erasing almost half of May’s sharp gains,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

“The decline was broad-based across components, with consumers’ assessments of the present situation and their expectations for the future both contributing to the deterioration.

Consumers were less positive about current business conditions than May.

Their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the sixth consecutive month but remained in positive territory, in line with the still-solid labor market.

The three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all weakened.

Consumers were more pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months, and optimism about future income prospects eroded slightly.”

The Conference Board’s Inflation Expectation index tumbled, leaving UMich alone in its partisan pathology…

Source: Bloomberg

Guichard added that:

“Tariffs remained on top of consumers’ minds and were frequently associated with concerns about their negative impacts on the economy and prices.”

“Inflation and high prices were another important concern cited by consumers in June. However, there were a few more mentions of easing inflation compared to last month.”

Of course, the partisanship never ends - we note that Democratic states are seeing confidence collapse while Trump states are seeing confidence rise…

Source: Bloomberg

Let’s wait and see if UMich can ‘fix’ its bias or just keep pushing inflation expectations to the moon.