Trump To Reveal “Major Trade Deal” Between US-UK

Yet another signal that the trade war has hit its peak came overnight, as President Trump took to Truth Social to tease a “big news conference” Thursday morning, where he plans to unveil a “major deal.” As U.S. markets began coming online, Trump continued promoting what he called “a very big and exciting day” for U.S.-U.K. trade. The official announcement is expected around 1000 A.M. ET.

Late Thursday night, the president wrote on Truth Social:

Big News Conference tomorrow morning at 10:00 A.M., The Oval Office, concerning a MAJOR TRADE DEAL WITH REPRESENTATIVES OF A BIG, AND HIGHLY RESPECTED, COUNTRY. THE FIRST OF MANY!!!

Around 0542 ET, he posted again:

This should be a very big and exciting day for the United States of America and the United Kingdom. Press Conference at The Oval Office, 10 A.M. Thank you!

Trump continued in a separate post around 0608 ET:

The agreement with the United Kingdom is a full and comprehensive one that will cement the relationship between the United States and the United Kingdom for many years to come. Because of our long time history and allegiance together, it is a great honor to have the United Kingdom as our FIRST announcement. Many other deals, which are in serious stages of negotiation, to follow!

Then followed by: 

“The Golden Age of America is coming!” 

A resolution to the US-UK trade spat would be the Trump administration’s first step in renegotiating trade worldwide. 

Last month, the U.S. imposed a 10% tariff on most imported goods from the UK as part of the baseline tariff it imposed on all nations. On March 12, the administration also imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports.

UK officials would most likely want to see the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum completely removed. If this is part of the upcoming trade deal, the UK could then give concessions on a digital tax it levies on Silicon Valley tech giants.

Trump’s series of Truth Social posts provided fresh tailwinds for equity markets overnight in Europe. 

Goldman analyst Jasmin Schneider told clients:

Europe trading firmly in the green this morning (SXXP +70bps, SX5E +1.3%) on progress surrounding US-UK trade talks and some solid earnings on the tape. The big focus overnight on trade talks between the U.S. and UK: *TRUMP: TRADE DEAL ANNOUNCEMENT `THE FIRST OF MANY’. Trump is expected to announce a limited trade agreement with the UK later today (UKX +30bps), which may signal the direction of the U.S. president’s global trade war. Our EU Tariffs Exposed basket (GSXETRFS +1.2%) and UK Consumption names (GSXEUKCO +1.7%) trading well with the deal likely to focus on reducing tariffs on cars and steel, and may include discussions on tech, AI, and digital trade (BBG).

Across the Atlantic, equity futures are also higher, with hopes that the US-UK trade deal will be the first of many resolutions. 

Goldman analyst Rich Privorotsky’s take on the developing trade situation:

Will be watching to see what the shape of the UK deal looks like as it could serve as a global template. Into the weekend the market should grow hopeful for a temperature reduction in the China/U.S. escalation. Although I’m a long term bearish  on U.S./China trade relations, I’m of the opinion that U.S. corporates have a degree of urgency in reducing the 100%+ tariffs imposed (can’t replace supply quickly). Think the landing zone is something back to the 30-50% mark and that will be the travel and arrive event.

Looking ahead, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterpart will discuss the framework for a trade deal on Saturday in Switzerland.

“The negotiations will begin on Saturday,” Bessent said in testimony before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.

Goldman offered some good news last week: Peak trade war.

Goldman chief economist Jan Hatzius noted earlier this week: ”The mood music with China has improved, and we expect the U.S. tariff rate on China to drop from around 160% to around 60% relatively soon. (China is likely to reduce tariffs on the U.S. by a similar amount.)”

Earlier this week, attendees at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills warmed up to Trump’s trade war but wanted to see near-term trade deals. KKR co-founder George Roberts told the audience: “Stay calm and carry on.”