Libya At Risk Of Declaring Force Majeure On Oil Production After Militia Attacks

Libya’s eastern government has warned of potential disruptions to oil production and exports following an attack by a Tripoli-based militia on the state-owned National Oil Corporation’s (NOC) headquarters. The threat of a force majeure declaration reintroduces the possibility of a geopolitical risk premium in Brent crude markets already contending with oversupply concerns. 

“Repeated attacks” on the NOC and its affiliates may prompt “precautionary measures, including declaring force majeure on oil fields and terminals,” or relocating the company’s headquarters to a “safer city,” Libya’s eastern government said in a statement quoted by Bloomberg.

The crisis reflects deepening tensions between Libya’s rival governments—one in the west led by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah and another in the east backed by military commander Khalifa Haftar.

Libya produces 1.3 million barrels per day, most of which is exported across the Mediterranean and European markets. Any curtailment of exports could immediately tighten global supply in the region. 

Libya’s fragile political situation reminds us of the August 2024 oil shutdown (courtesy of The Libya Observer):

The incident revives fears of renewed oil shutdowns in Libya, which has struggled to stabilise production amid political turmoil. In August 2024, the country lost more than 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in output as rival factions clashed over central bank control, disrupting exports for over a month.

NOC has tried to maintain neutrality amid Libya’s civil conflict but is often caught between the East and West governments, each seeking control over oil revenues.

NOC rejected the eastern government’s allegations of an assault on its headquarters as fake news. 

“The corporation continues its vital operations without interruption,” NOC stated, describing the recent incident as a “limited personal dispute” that was swiftly resolved.

“Prime Minister Dabaiba is fighting for his political survival amidst protests in Tripoli, a fractured government, and the constant risk of renewed clashes with rival forces,” Fernando Ferreira, Rapidan Energy Group’s director of geopolitical risk, told Zero Hedge.

Ferreira said, “Libyan National Army commander Haftar smells blood in the water and is adding another element of pressure by threatening to disrupt oil exports, hoping that it will prompt the US and others to push Dabaiba to step down. The threat is real, but the LNA is still weighing whether to move past the rhetoric and take barrels offline.”

Traders did not price in a geopolitical risk premium when the report hit the wires earlier this morning. In fact, Brent crude remains under pressure as investors weigh progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations, which could eventually bring additional barrels to market, alongside expectations that OPEC+ may proceed with another output increase in July. 

The situation in Libya is certainly something to watch, while the market focus now shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ decision in the days ahead.