Countdown To Shortages? Last Cargo Ships From China Arrive In US Ports

US tariffs on most Chinese goods are currently holding at 145%, but were not applied to goods transported by cargo ships already at sea.  This means that many of the products still flowing through US ports do not require companies to pay extra duties.  This is about to change, however, as the last ships from China that are free from tariff charges are now finally arriving to the West Coast.

The effects of the tariffs are already hitting China like a sledgehammer.  Numerous companies have cancelled orders from Chinese manufacturers and businesses are implementing a “wait and see” strategy (when they should be looking for alternative suppliers).  Some companies are searching for port storage facilities to hold their goods in the hopes that tariffs will be removed.  Ultimately, this means that many of China’s factories are going to remain shut down, perhaps for months.

The establishment media in the US is hyping up the event as potentially “worse than covid” in terms of impending shortages, but is this really the case?  Are empty shelves on the way?

The pandemic comparison ironically betrays a certain faulty logic on the part of journalists and pro-globalism economists.  Even in the midst of the lockdowns, the supply chain remained relatively adaptable.  It’s hard to believe that tariffs could be worse considering not all manufacturing countries are facing the same obstacles.  

China in particular is not as integral to America’s supply chain as it once was.  Since 2018, US imports from China have dropped from 21% of total goods to 13% of total goods.  US dependency on China has been in steep decline.  Only 7% of US exports go to the Chinese; a negligible portion of total GDP. 

On the other hand, China is in serious trouble.  Though their exports to the US have fallen to 15% of total goods, the communist nation is in the middle of a crushing deflationary crisis.  Any major shocks to their system at this juncture will cause a long term crisis.  Furthermore, there’s no replacement consumer market to fill the void that the US leaves behind.  The US alone represents 30% of the total global consumer market.  Nearly every manufacturer in the world is reliant on American purchases.

Even more dangerous is China’s reliance on US agricultural goods.  Their imports from the US have dropped from 29% in 2009 to 13% in 2024, but their food supply is still precarious.  Again, any shock to this area of their economy could have far reaching repercussions. 

There are, however, some risks to the US.  For example, a large percentage of over the counter drugs and some antibiotics in the US are sourced from China (about 95% of U.S. ibuprofen comes from China, for example).  Around 20% of apparel imports and 24% of textile imports come from China.  From 60% to 80% of many consumer electronic items in the US are manufactured in China, including smartphones, laptops and game consoles. Around 80% of all toys in the US are made in China.

While over the counter drug shortages might represent a viable problem, many of the goods Americans buy from China are less necessary.  

More significant economic effects will probably be visible in smaller boutique businesses that import materials for their products.  Companies that rely on China for cheap bottles, cans, containers, boxes and labels, etc. to package their goods.  Small businesses will take a hit if they source completely from China, and will probably raise their prices as they look for alternatives.  

The direct-from-China loophole has also been closed, so international direct importers like Temu, Shein and Aliexpress will take a hit.  

It is unlikely that tariffs on China alone will have a dramatic effect on US supplies.  A number of corporations are already moving their manufacturing elsewhere and some companies are already relocating some factories to the US.  That said, US domestic manufacturing is definitely not what it used to be and it’s not ready to fill gaps in the supply chain left behind by major export nations.  If a significant number of countries are forced to shut down factories at the same time, shortages could indeed be a threat.  

Domestic production needs to become a center stage issue for the Trump Administration, which has been laser focused on tariffs but has not given a detailed enough plan for bringing back “Made In USA” fast enough to compensate for the consequences.  The American public needs to hear how exactly this will be done. 

In the meantime, its far more likely that China will implode under the weight of the tariffs and its ongoing deflationary crisis.  If the CCP wants to avoid a massive jobless rate and civil unrest, they will blink.