Conference Board Consumer Expectations Surge Most In 14 Years After Tariff ‘Pause’

For the first time since trump was elected, The Conference Board’s US Consumer Confidence measure rose in May. The headline index surged 12.3 points to 98, marking the biggest monthly gain in four years (and dramatically better than the 87.1 exp). A gauge of consumer expectations for the next six months surged by the most since 2011, while a measure of present conditions climbed as well…

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Source: Bloomberg

The cutoff for the survey was May 19, after the US and China agreed to temporarily reduce high levies on each other’s goods while they negotiate a trade deal.

“Consumer confidence improved in May after five consecutive months of decline,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “

The rebound was already visible before the May 12 US-China trade deal but gained momentum afterwards. 

The monthly improvement was largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—rose from their April lows. 

Consumers were less pessimistic about business conditions and job availability over the next six months and regained optimism about future income prospects. 

Consumers’ assessments of the present situation also improved. 

However, while consumers were more positive about current business conditions than last month, their appraisal of current job availability weakened for the fifth consecutive month.”

With stocks back up near record highs, all those pessimistic pollees have reversed their views on stocks being lower in a year (having spiked to the highest since 2011)…

Source: Bloomberg

The Conference Board’s Inflation Expectation index tumbled, leaving UMich alone in its partisan pathology…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, if the world is literally as bad as it could possibly be (according to CEOs and ‘average joes’) then why are jobless claims refusing to budge from multi-decade lows?

Source: Bloomberg

Has the ‘virtue signaling’ of social media finally morphed over to ‘soft’ survey data? “Everyone I see on TV is freaking out about Trump’s tariffs and immigration policies, so I better toe-the-line…”?

Just like “polls”, all this soft data slump (despite stocks now back near record highs) has merely crushed people’s confidence in ‘surveys’ ability to predict anything (but who you voted for).

Consumer Confidence 98.0, Exp. 87.1, Last 85.7

UMich’s Marxism department: pic.twitter.com/YUTqms0uGT

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) May 27, 2025

Is today’s rebound in The Conference Board (which goes along with the recent rebound in overall soft data), the start of the reality check that the world didn’t end after Trump was elected?