Deep State JOLTED: Government Job Openings Plummet To 5 Year Low As Total Hires, Quits Jump

One month after the BLS reported that in February the labor market reverted to its deteriorating trendline, when the US had 7.568 million job openings (missing estimates of 7.655 million), a drop from the 7.762 million in January (revised from 7.740 million), and down 877,000 from the prior year, moments ago the latest JOLTS report showed that in March the labor market continued to deteriorate, and the number of job openings declined again, this time by 288K, from a downward revised 7.480MM to 7.192MM, the lowest since September 2024.

According to the BLS, the drop in job openings was across most sectors, with an emphasis of construction, transportation, private education and real estate. The lone increase was reported in finance and insurance.

However, the biggest surprise was precisely where we noted last month that something doesn’t make sense. 

Recall last month we said that “as always, there is a reason to doubt this particular set of numbers – just as there was reason to doubt every set of numbers from Biden – because according to the February JOLTS report, the number of Federal Government job openings was essentially flat both sequentially and YoY.”

Well, not anymore, and in March, the number of government job openings plunged by 36K, from 134K to just 98K, the first sub-100K print since the covid crash, some five years ago!

In  the context of the broader jobs report, in February the number of job openings was 109 more than the number of unemployed workers (which the BLS reported was 7.083 million), down from 428K the previous month, and the lowest differentials since the covid crash.

Still, as noted previously, until this number turns negative, the US labor market is not demand constrained, and a recession has never started in a period when there were more job openings than unemployed workers.

Said otherwise, in January the number of job openings to unemployed rose modestly to 1.1, the highest since last May if on the low end of the pre-covid range in 2018-2019.

While the job openings data was a miss and a drop, what softened the blow is that for the the number of hires unexpectedly rose to 5.411 million from 5.370 million, the highest since last October, and hardly screaming collapse in the labor market. Meanwhile, the number of workers quitting their jobs – a sign of confidence in finding a better paying job elsewhere – rose again, and in March hit 3.332 million, up from 3.250 million and the highest since July 2024.

How to make sense of this continued deterioration in the labor market, and especially in the government sector?

Well, as we explained in “Here’s What Trump Needs To Do For Powell To Quickly Cut Rates” to get the Fed to cut rates,
“all Trump has to do is simply maintain the current level of sharp layoffs – i.e., fully unleash Musk’s DOGE – in the parasitic government sector which will more than offset gains everywhere and lead to a spike in total unemployment, and Powell will have no choice but to finally capitulate.”

And judging by the sudden plunge in government job openings, don’t be surprised if Friday’s jobs report shows a huge drop in the number of actual government workers which pushes the broader unemployment rate higher and forces Powell out of his stupor.