Ex-Soros Exec Bessent’s Odds Drop As Trump Expands Search For Treasury Secretary

The group of prospective Trump Treasury Secretary picks has expanded from two (Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent – as we detailed here) to four (now including former Fed governor Kevin Warsh and Apollo Globla chief Marc Rowan).

While we noted earlier that Elon Musk and RFK Jr. are pushing for Howard Lutnick, with Musk praising the Cantor Fitzgerald CEO as a disruptor compared to Key Square Group (and George Soros protégé) Scott Bessent – the latter of whom met with Trump on Friday, and has the backing of many including noted investor Kyle Bass; The FT reports that people close to the process said Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, Marc Rowan, chief executive of Apollo Global Management, and Bill Hagerty, the Tennessee senator, are also now in the running, along with Robert Lighthizer, the former US trade representative under Trump.

Scott Bessent is eminently more qualified than Howard Lutnick to run the U.S. Treasury. Scott understands markets, economics, people, and geopolitics better than anyone I’ve ever interacted with. Markets have already anticipated a Bessent choice. Lutnick is not Trump’s answer. pic.twitter.com/qnpfBt6ZPt

— Kyle Bass (@Jkylebass) November 13, 2024

The FT continues to note that since Trump was elected, Bessent has been on the defensive about his commitment to enacting the president’s economic vision.

In an opinion piece for Fox News last week, he described tariffs as “a means to finally stand up for Americans”.

But his critics have seized on comments to the Financial Times that the president-elect’s agenda represented “maximalist” positions that were negotiating tools, as a sign he would be soft on the issue.

Trump’s aides are reluctant to repeat the tensions over trade in Trump’s first administration, when Steven Mnuchin, then-Treasury secretary, frequently sought to moderate tariff plans for fear of disrupting markets.

Several people familiar with the discussions inside Trump’s team said Lighthizer, who served as US trade representative in the first administration, had previously expressed interest in becoming Treasury secretary. 

On Sunday the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a pro-tariff think-tank, backed Lighthizer publicly for Treasury secretary. 

“The next Treasury secretary must be 100 per cent aligned with President-elect Trump’s policy on tariffs,” it said in a post on X.

“Former USTR Robert Lighthizer is a steadfast champion for the US economy and the best choice to carry out President Trump’s trade agenda.”

Marc Rowan

Rowan, 62, is a billionaire investor who leads Apollo Global Management, which he cofounded in the 1990s. It now has nearly $700 billion in assets under management. Apollo recently announced that it plans to double its assets under management to $1.5 trillion by 2029.

The Journal, citing people familiar with the matter, reported that while the billionaire’s aides are in touch with Trump, Rowan isn’t actively trying to secure the Treasury Secretary role and hasn’t spoken to Trump personally about such a position.

But the Times also wrote that Trump has been telling his staff that he’s impressed with Rowan, who Bloomberg estimates to be worth $10.9 billion.

Rowan has said that US economic concerns must be fixed by what he called “wholesale change,” which he said Trump and his new administration would bring.

Kevin Warsh

Warsh, 54, is a former Morgan Stanley banker and one of the newer contenders.

He was an economic advisor to President George W. Bush from 2002 to 2006 and a governor of the Federal Reserve Board from 2006 to 2011. During the latter period, Warsh was a central figure in shaping the nation’s response to the 2007-2008 financial crisis, working to rescue major ailing banks.

Trump had been floating Warsh that year as a frontrunner for Fed chair. He eventually picked Jerome Powell for the role.

More recently, he’s been working on Trump’s transition team, helping with economic policy and personnel, according to The Journal.

Most recently, Warsh was outspoken in questioning The Fed’s independence with regard the 50bps rate-cut right before the election.

“if that’s all true, maybe they’re not data-dependent.”

“I do not want to be the person accusing them of politics … but when you don’t have a theory of the case and you don’t follow it, it is easy to get that accusation and it is harder … to defend them.”

Finally, Bessent – the former strong favorite – has seen his odds plunge in the last week, now tied according to Polymarket with Howard Lutnick as Kevin Warsh’s odds rise quickly…

We give the last word to Jim Bianco who had a good take on how this plays out:

The Treasury Secretary gets to sit in the room and opine on policy. And their voice will be taken seriously.

But they do not set the policy; the President does. When the president says what they will do, they expect the Treasury Secretary to sell that policy as if it were theirs.

The second part, selling something they don’t believe in but are told to do, is something Jamie Dimon will never do, so he will never be the Treasury Secretary. (Dimon wants to tell everyone else what they should sell).

Lutnick will sell whatever you tell him and do it with gusto! Bessent will do so too, but he does not command the room like Lutnick.

In other words, the Treasury Secretary is the administration’s chief spokesman. This is a sales job, and it needs a salesperson.

The problem with Yellen was that she needed to be a better salesperson. Yes, she is an outstanding economist, but she was never a good spokesperson for the Biden Agenda.

She would have been a better National Economic Council head, the “smart person in the shadows advising the President.”

If I had to guess ….

• Lutnick = Treasury Secretary
• Bessent = National Economic Council head

Meanwhile, Charlie Gasparino reported that “Kevin Warsh has assumed the top position, I am told (which, of course, could change the minute you read this),” adding that “I don’t know what is in Donald Trump’s head for a Treasury Secretary and I hear a dark horse might emerge.”