Chicago Cubs: Cade Horton is being brutalized by pessimistic 2026 projections

The Chicago Cubs had a tremendous season last year, all things considered. They made it to the playoffs for the first time since 2020 and won their first playoff games since 2017.

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Although the red-hot Milwaukee Brewers would have an insane year to snatch the NL Central Division and those same Brewers would eliminate the Cubs from the NLDS after Chicago made a true grit comeback from a 0-2 start to the series, 2025 had to be seen as a great success story.

One of the most feel-good of the Cubs’ positives last season was the emergence of top pitching prospect Cade Horton and the incredible run he had in his first season in the majors.

The 24-year-old was not even supposed to be with the big league squad in 2025, but was forced up from Iowa when Shota Imanaga went on the IL with a hamstring injury.

Horton performed well enough in his first tour of big league duty, but then he REALLY took off.

The mind-boggling rise of Cade Horton

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The Cubs’ 2022 no. 1 draft pick dazzled over the second half of the season, going 8-1 and posting an incredible 1.03 ERA in twelve starts after the All-Star break. In that stretch of time, he was, arguably, the best pitcher in all of baseball, eventually earning him an 11-4 record with a 2.67 ERA on the season and a second place finish in Rookie of the Year voting.

Unfortunately for the Cubs, a fractured rib in late September would put Horton on the shelf and keep him from postseason play. His absence from the Cubs’ playoff run presents one of the great “what ifs” regarding the 2025 campaign.

But for those hoping to see Horton have anywhere near that same level of success in 2026, MLB analysts have some bad news.

Horton projected to have a humbling 2026

The various MLB projection systems are unanimous in their belief that the incoming sophomore pitcher will have a significantly more humble showing in 2026.

Fangraphs has Horton finishing with a 4.12 ERA on the season. ZiPS has him with a 3.89 ERA. Steamer has him coming in with an ERA between 4.34-4.55. Fantasy Pros, meanwhile, is the most optimistic with a 3.78 ERA projection.

Brent Maguire of MLB.com recently explained some of the pessimism regarding Horton:

“Cade Horton…just had an excellent rookie campaign, in which he ran a 2.67 ERA across 118 innings and finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. There’s no denying that the young starter and former top prospect has a frontline starter upside, but there are obvious areas he needs to improve. Most ERA indicators, like FIP (3.58), expected FIP (4.27) and expected ERA (3.88), pegged him for much higher ERAs, largely stemming from a 33rd percentile strikeout rate.”

Projection systems smack the Cubs hard

The projection systems haven’t been kind to the Cubs as a whole, though. ZiPs, for example, described the deep Cubs rotation as “deep in meh and unexcitement.”

Dan Szymborski, the developer of the computer-based ZiPS projection system, explained his system’s projection of mediocrity:

“ZiPS sees the Cubs as having a very deep rotation that’s also very deep in unexcitement. There’s certainly some upside here, especially in Edward Cabrera, but ZiPS largely views the team as having a whole lot of broadly average starting pitching options. The good news here is that if Justin Steele has any setbacks, ZiPS likes the team’s replacement options. Even with especially bad luck in the injury department, the computer thinks Javier Assad will be adequate — it has him with an ERA considerably lower than his FIP, though some of that is thanks to the stellar Cubs defense — and that Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks would both be far more acceptable as starters if called into duty than they’ve shown so far. Heck, if Colin Rea or even Connor Noland were forced into starting some games, that wouldn’t be an apocalyptic scenario for the Cubs.”

Horton, however, has shown the ability to be absolutely electric. His command, his pitch execution, and his daring as a rookie were elite-tier for much of the 2025 season. Realistically, even if he takes a full step backwards in 2026, he’ll still be a front-of-rotation starter– in a packed rotation where team success doesn’t necessarily depend on a single pitcher’s success.

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Source: https://www.chicitysports.com/chicago-cubs-cade-horton-projection-2026