Hot & Cold Map: Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals

It’s divisional game season.  The Ravens dispatched the Browns two weeks ago to finish the season 2-0 against them.  Now, four of the next five games are against the Bengals and Steelers, starting with the Cincinnati home game on Thanksgiving.  If the Bengals lose, you can stick a fork in them, so it is a must win game for Cincy.  Head coach Zac Taylor is turning to Joe Burrow to repeat what he did last season for a 4-8 Bengal team:  win out.

Not an easy task by any means.  The Bengals are 27^th in PFF’s team rankings, below even the Browns.  Their offense ranks 18^th in points and 23^rd in yards, and their defense ranked dead last in both.  Their D was very bad last season – somehow they’ve managed to be even worse in 2025.  The game against the Patriots last week, however, gives them a glimmer of hope.

Bengals Offense vs. Ravens Defense

As you may expect, the Bengals live out of 11 personnel.  Their percent of snaps (72.57%) is only surpassed by Tennessee, and they happen to run very well out of this personnel (0.10 EPA/play), when they do decide to run.  They run 12 personnel a decent 21.88% of the time, and nearly nothing else.  OC Dan Pitcher’s team does not have a FB and does not go jumbo.  A number of particular injuries hamper their ability to be creative.

Burrow doesn’t have much data this season (less than two full games), but was 1-0 as a starter and doing Joe Burrow things (but was trailing Jacksonville 14-7 at the time of his injury).  The Ravens know this guy well and I doubt he’ll be doing anything new.  It should go without saying that they need to take him seriously.  He will have his bro Ja’Marr Chase to throw to, but he won’t have his other bro Tee Higgins, as Higgins suffered a concussion against New England.  Mitchell Tinsley has been a pleasant surprise at times this season, and Andrei Iosivas is a competent receiver, but it’s still a big downgrade.  You’d think Zach Orr will do everything he can to keep the ball out of Chase’s hands, but I’ve seen some very poor game plans from Baltimore on both sides this season already.

The loss of Higgins may mean the Bengals put more two-TE formations out there, with a trio of Mike Gesicki, Drew Sample and Noah Fant to lean on.  Gesicki’s practically a WR anyway.  Sample is the primary blocking TE, leading the way for Chase Brown, a very good RB with a streak of five games with 100+ yards from scrimmage.  The way the Ravens defense has been playing, I expect a lot of checkdowns.  Behind Brown is a vacant lot.  Samaje Perine is coming back but Tahj Brooks is out.  There will probably be a Kendall Milton or Gary Brightwell sighting off the practice squad.

The OL often gets hung out to dry as everyone else, including the RB and TE, runs a route.  Whether because of the defense or the scheme, they have the lowest number of carries in the entire league with 214.  You can imagine then, that the run blocking isn’t good, because their linemen are always prepared to go backward.  There is a key move that breathes life into this unit – veteran Dalton Risner was recently announced as the new starter in place of rookie Jalen Rivers, who may have been the worst starting OG in the league.  Yes, Ravens fans, worse than “him.”  C Ted Karras is putting in yeoman’s work, and their OT are okay, but they could use some help every now and then.

Burrow and Chase are just too good to keep the Bengals down all game, and the streak of giving up fewer than 20 points probably ends here, but I don’t think they score much more than that.  There are only a few things they’ll be able to do, albeit do well against the Ravens.

Bengals Defense vs. Ravens Offense

Wow… there’s a lot of blue here.  And there should be.  This unit is really, really… really struggling.  There’s no Trey Hendrickson (injured), Shemar Stewart (injured), Logan Wilson (traded) or Cam Taylor-Britt (injured).  They tend to play your standard 4-2 nickel, and rotate their DT.  There are some young players here with a lot of room for improvement, but the depth isn’t there.

The only reason this side isn’t even bluer is a solid effort from several players against New England.  Their best defender is CB D.J. Turner II, who is a one-trick pony (coverage) but excels at that one trick.  Hendrickson’s replacement Joseph Ossai is a good edge-setter, and B.J. Hill has been a rock for years, but otherwise the front seven is littered with draft busts – Myles Murphy, Kris Jenkins, McKinnley Jackson.  T.J. Slaton is doing nothing of note.  Behind them are two rookie LB in the process of being thrown to the wolves:  Demetrius Knight Jr and Barrett Carter.  Behind them, the secondary is small.  All of this is leads to a point:  the Ravens should put Lamar Jackson under center and run all over this team.

After establishing the run Todd Monken can use play action to shred the back end.  Knight and Carter haven’t learned NFL coverage yet; Dax Hill opposite Turner looks like a bust, and despite a pick-six last week, Geno Stone has his own problems.  DC Al Golden inserted Jalen Davis as the new NB last week which contributed a bit to their better effort.

The Ravens failed to put up 30 points against a mediocre Jets defense.  If they can’t do it against this team, they’re doing it to anybody else this season.

Conclusion

The biggest advantage the Ravens have in this game is not having to travel for a short turn-around.  The Bengals don’t have that luxury.  Add to that a Thanksgiving home crowd.  Chase will get his but it won’t be enough on his own.  Joe Burrow’s return cannot be allowed to be triumphant, and my feeling is it won’t be, leaving him 3-7 as a starting QB against Baltimore.

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