Hot & Cold Map: Ravens at Minnesota Vikings

The hole that the Ravens dug themselves at the start of the season is partially filled, but there is still no margin for error.  During the “soft” part of their schedule, they can afford to lose perhaps one game, and even then it may be one too many.  After dispatching the Bears and Dolphins, they now have to figure out a way past the Minnesota Vikings.  They are staying on the road after enjoying a mini-bye after a pretty healthy win.

The Vikings are 4-4, in the thick of the NFC Wild Card quagmire, and like their record indicates, PFF has them 19^th in the NFL in overall team grade.  Like the Bears and Dolphins were, they are coming off a big victory the week before facing Baltimore – a surprising division win over the Lions.  Prior to that game they struggled against the Eagles and Chargers, but that was with a different quarterback (Carson Wentz).  HC Kevin O’Connell‘s team has an offense ranked 18^th in points and 26^th in yards, and a defense ranked 20^th in points and 14^th in yards.  They are not the easiest team to measure due to a number of factors.

Vikings Offense vs. Ravens Defense

The Vikings play in 11 personnel 69.93% of the time, which is 5^th most in the NFL, and they throw out of 11 personnel 71.96% of the time with OC Wes Phillips (son of Wade) while league average is 59.15%  That is their identity, but it is by far their worst package with an EPA of -49.62.  That is broken down into -0.05 EPA per rush and -0.19 EPA per pass using 3WR sets.  They do better when they bring in a second TE, but of course they throw less often from that package, and TE2 Josh Oliver has been ruled out for Sunday.

The X factor here is young QB J.J. McCarthy, who is playing his fourth career game and only the second since coming back from injury.  McCarthy doesn’t have a sample size large enough to be confident with any statistical trends, so it comes down to using the eyeball test on tape.  He wasn’t terribly accurate against Detroit and made several dangerous throws across his body that happened to work out.  His running and escapability was a bigger factor than the Lions anticipated.  He ultimately made enough good throws to take advantage of the receiving talent on the field.

Speaking of, the skill group is well designed to catch passes.  Justin Jefferson needs no introduction, Jordan Addison is playing well, and Jalen Nailor can clean up from the slot.  T.J. Hockenson is an established receiving TE and Aaron Jones (Questionable) is a very good RB to have in the passing game.  McCarthy doesn’t have to work too hard to prosper if he runs the offense smoothly, buuut he has a tendency to go off script and throw off platform and a good secondary – like the Ravens are supposed to have – will get at least one interception off of what is essentially a rookie QB in this game.

The front five is also designed to primarily pass block, starting with their bookend tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill.  Baltimore has a weakness generating outside pressure to begin with, and those two are going to make it a non factor.  They must therefore try to penetrate the inside, with backup C Blake Brandel improving since taking over for an injured Ryan Kelly.  First though, it is paramount that the Ravens limit the run game; while Jones has done quite well in the past, and RB2 Jordan Mason is also capable, the OL and the overall scheme does the run game no favors.

Kyle Hamilton once again is going to be the biggest reason why I think the opposing offense is limited; they’ll score some out of sheer talent but will not get much higher than 20, and I think there will be one or two turnovers.

Vikings Defense vs. Ravens Offense

Brian Flores, a name the Ravens are all too familiar with, coaches this unit, and that means there will be lots and lots of blitzing.  They are a top ten defense in terms of EPA and EPA per play and are consistently above average against both the run and pass.  That they are worse in points allowed than yards allowed points to a few tough situations the Vikings offense put them in with Wentz at the helm.  They tend to use an odd front but mix in a lot of different looks and rotate their pass rushers.

The recent return of LB Blake Cashman and EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel from injury had a big impact in the Detroit game and makes the front seven much more formidable.  Jonathan Greenard is a rock on the outside, and  NT Javon Hargrave has been one of the best in the league for some time.  There is some potential here to struggle against the run, with no DL doing particularly well, but the second and third levels solidly clean that up.  It will be interesting to see if Derrick Henry can get going into the second and third level, where he will be met by Cashman and safety Harrison Smith, the Hamilton prototype.

In the meantime we will see if Flores does his zero-blitz routine against Lamar Jackson again, or calls for more zone-blitzes and disguised drop backs.  If Lamar beats the blitz, the secondary can be had, with Byron Murphy in particular having an uncharacteristically poor season.  Starting FS Theo Jackson is banged up and is questionable to play.  This is a risk-reward situation for the Vikings defense.  Smith is probably going to be the QB spy, lurking near the line of scrimmage.  Perhaps more than most games, Lamar’s effectiveness under pressure will determine how much the Ravens sore.

I see a score in the 20s, making this a tight contest.

Conclusion

We’re past the trade deadline now and the chance to be sellers is over.  The Ravens need to win this game, and the next one, and the next one.  This one, on paper at least, is the toughest match up of the three, with challenges presented on both sides of the ball.  Not to mention, the Vikings have one of the best special teams units in the NFL.  They aren’t world beaters however, and there is a game plan out there that will defeat them.

You’ve heard it before: limit their run game, force them to pass, and be methodical on offense running the ball and making blitz-beating throws.

We’ve seen the Ravens do it; they simply have to do it again.

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