Hot & Cold Map: Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Three wins are logged in during the 2025 Ravens Redemption tour, with two left in the “easy” stretch of the schedule.  The Browns may be an easier foe than other teams on paper, but this is a road divison game against a team that’s beaten the Ravens at least once in four straight seasons.  In addition to this, the Ravens are entering the usual banged up phase of an NFL team.  There cannot be an ounce of let-up or the Browns, who know the Ravens very well, will make it five straight seasons.  That said, the first match was a runaway Raven train in the second half, ending 41-17.

If this weren’t a division game against a well-known opponent, the Browns would be in trouble.  They are 23^rd in the NFL per PFF, coincidentally one spot ahead of the climbing Ravens.  Unlike the previous Ravens opponents, there are no good vibes in Cleveland, having lost five of six games including to the Jets last week.  The drama of the 2025 season is highighted by their QB circus which is whittled down to their two rookies. HC Kevin Stefanski has one of the most imbalanced teams in the league, if not the most imbalanced, with an offense ranked 29^th in points and 31^st in yards, and a defense ranked 17^th in points and 2^nd in yards.  That disparity on defense between points and yards has a lot to do with the offense doing them no favors.

Browns Offense vs. Ravens Defense

When we last saw the Browns, they were playing multiple TE and RB on offense, and they remain one of only two teams in the NFL that don’t play 11 personnel most often – the other team being the Baltimore Ravens.  The RB room has cleaned up with the emergence of rookie Quinshon Jukins, but the Browns still use 12 personnel for 43.81% of their snaps, and 11 personnel for 40.72% of their snaps.  They recognize that their best bet is having both David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr on the field.  The results are not there however, except when they go Jumbo 12 (5.33%, 11.53 EPA).  Their passing game in particular is woeful, and starting last week, OC Tommy Rees took over play calling.

QB Dillon Gabriel is flat out struggling.  He is an undersized rookie that is completing less than 60% of his passes and has a flat 5.0 YPA.  The only relatively good thing about him during the season is that he’s only turned the ball over twice, both interceptions against New England.  Their TE and WR can only do so much to help, and Gabriel is dragging their performance down.  Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman made a few plays against a depleted Jets defense, but they aren’t scaring opponents.  It won’t help that an already inaccurate QB will be trying to throw the ball in the blustery winds by Lake Erie.

The offense is going to lean heavily on the inside run game of Judkins, with Dylan Sampson sprinkled in.  I say inside game because their offensive line is practically three-wide.  Joel Bitonio may end up in Canton one day, and he is the one and only player on offense with a positive pass-blocking grade, including TE and RB.  Their OT in particular are playing poorly.  RT Jack Conklin appears to be well past his prime, and he’s still been better than Cam Robinson on the left side.

This is a game where a galvanized Ravens front seven can completely shut down the opponent and even pitch a shutout.  I don’t think that will happen, but I can see it.  I am confident however that Cleveland will score in the teens at most.

Browns Defense vs. Ravens Offense

Flip the script and there are major concerns for Baltimore from the defense under familiar DC Jim Schwartz.  The team’s seen it once already and dealt with it, and nothing has changed schematically.  They play an even front and rotate their DL, and usually have two LB on the field.  Everything feeds off of all-world DE Myles Garrett.  They shut down the run better than anyone (1^st in rushing TD against, 2^nd in YPC), force third and long, then let the dogs eat.

Garrett is on another level, but the defensive line as a whole is their strength.  This is the only area however where the Browns injury report comes in.  DE Alex Wright, who earned a starting spot, is ruled out, leaving Isaiah McGuire opposite Garrett.  McGuire is excellent against the run but isn’t a top pass rusher.  Perhaps more important is whether DT Maliek Collins (listed as questionable) plays or not.  Collins is a premier interior pass rusher and a key part of their rotation.  Mike Hall would fill in if he’s missing.  Mason Graham continues to have a strong rookie season and the team has the luxury of rotating Shelby Harris in, but a thinned unit may be susceptible to tiring out.

LB Carson Schwesinger started his rookie seeson on fire but has cooled off some, credited with seven missed tackles in his last three games.  Devin Bush next to him has also simmered down, especially in coverage.  The team will likely bring in a third LB more often against the Ravens offense, this being Jerome Baker.  The effort of the second level against Derrick Henry, Pat Ricard and company will be something to keep an eye on.

The secondary swapped out Greg Newsome for Tyson Campbell and Campbell has done very well for them.  The CB1 Denzel Ward is banged up but is expected to play.  The safety tandem of Ronnie Hickman and Grant Delpit is one of the best in the league.  Their nickel is the weak link, but can the Ravens afford to go three or four-wide on this team with their offensive line issues?  I’m going to say they can’t.

Once again I see a score in the 20s on the road against an aggressive defense, one that will tire out because they lose time of possession by a large margin.

Conclusion

Given that the Ravens heed the warning in the introduction and don’t let up against the Browns, I don’t see how Cleveland can score enough to keep up, even with the Ravens being limited to 20-something points.  Really the only way the Browns can pull off the upset is the age-old way of forcing turnovers and penalties.  So far during this win streak, the Ravens aren’t doing that.  This should be a win, and it’s a very important one.

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