Hot/Cold Map: Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Last week was concerning. The Ravens were out-rushed by the Lions like never before in the Lamar Jackson Era; this being compounded by injury to all three starting defensive linemen.  There is a hint of desperation already as the team wants to avoid starting the season 1-3.  That said, they are going on the road, on a short week, to the home of the defending AFC Champions, who are also trying to avoid going 1-3.

After starting the season with losses to the Chargers and Eagles, the Chiefs rebounded with a modest victory over the Giants.  Their defense, ranked 9^th in points and 11^th in yards against, is ahead of their offense, ranked 21^st and 17^th respectively.

Chiefs Offense vs. Ravens Defense

The Chiefs like to operate with 2TE sets, currently almost 32% of the time, and they haven’t done a good job with 12 personnel so far (-5.67 EPA).  They’ve done best in standard 11 by far (23.87 EPA).  With the injuries up front for the Ravens though, KC will probably continue to run multiple TE sprinkled with a few jumbo and 2RB snaps.

Patrick Mahomes is living a bit off reputation, as statistically he hasn’t been all that good since 2022.  He’s still the best player they have on offense.  His now-legendary ability to create and throw off-platform is still there.  The return of deep threat Xavier Worthy will open up a lot for them; however, their best receiver so far this season is fellow deep threat Tyquan Thornton, and I wonder if the Chiefs will limit his snaps in favor of veterans Marquise Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.  Regardless, nobody is standing out in the passing game.  Travis Kelce is on his last legs, and that alone makes a huge difference.  The result:  Mahomes has a completion percentage under 60% and a YPA of 6.4.  He had four turnover-worthy plays against the Giants.

They’re not particularly good running the ball either.  The Chiefs have 2.34 yards after contact per rushing attempt, which is below average.  Of the 11 runs of 10+ yards they’ve managed through three games, seven of them were on Mahomes scrambles.  Mahomes really shouldn’t be the leading rusher on the team, but he is.

The Ravens have the personnel to match up with the Chiefs skill players, so here we come back again to the trenches.  Three of the five starting linemen for Kansas City are struggling big time early this season:  Rookie LT Josh Simmons (understandable), LG Kingsley Suamataia (who is playing a new position), and RT Jawaan Taylor (who is always cheating the LOS and still gets beat).  These guys are ripe for the picking – Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith can only do so much.  In the absence of players like Nnamdi Madubuike, Kyle Van Noy and now perhaps Broderick Washington and/or Travis Jones, the depth along the front must step up and force the Chiefs to keep extra men in protection.  I’m not even talking about the run blocking, which has been atrocious.  This looks like a case of weakness vs weakness.

Injury Report: Ravens @ Chiefs (Thursday)

Which weak is weaker?  I’ll take the average and say the Chiefs score in the low 20’s.

Chiefs Defense vs. Ravens Offense

Now we have strength on strength, at least on paper.  Steve Spagnuolo is one of the best defensive coordinators in football, and has a history now of out-coaching the Ravens.  He runs a variety of fronts, both even and odd, relying on the versatility of future Hall of Famer Chris Jones and first round pick George Karlaftis next to a rotation of players.  Jones has been surprisingly bad in run defense and tackling, but he is getting pressure as well as ever.  The mix-and-match crew aren’t special, but one player to watch is sub-DL Omar Normann-Lott, who like Jones can provide interior rush.  That, and everybody in the league is salavating at the opportunity to go after a Ravens OL that is breaking down.

The Chiefs have a very, very good trio of LB in Nick Bolton, Drue Tranquill and Leo Chenal.  Bolton started slow but I have every confidence it’s just statistical noise.  They tackle, rush, and cover.  They also have a very, very good secondary.  CB Jaylen Watson is allowing a passer rating of 44 so far.  He and bookend Trent McDuffie are complemented by a group of safeties and nickels led by Bryan Cook.  They can afford to play a lot of man coverage, but they’re also good at zone coverage like Tampa Two.

This is going to be another top chess match between coach Spags and Ravens OC Todd Monken.  The Ravens have weapons and the Chiefs have air defense.  Both sides have depth.  Once again the biggest concern for the Ravens is up front, and whether they can run block as well as protect Lamar Jackson well enough for him extend plays effectively.  I do expect the Ravens to score some – around the same as the Chiefs, in the 20’s – and I expect most of that scoring to come from said extended plays by Lamar, where he works his magic.  Kansas City got great tape from Detroit, though, who did a great job of containing Lamar, leading to his career high of seven sacks.  If the Chiefs replicate the Lions defense, the Ravens probably lose again.

Conclusion

This is a big game for both teams and I expect a lot of fireworks.  Turnovers probably make the difference here.  The Ravens have been prone, but so have the Chiefs.  The chess game is going to be intense and the result can go either way.  My advice: be aware that a 1-3 start is not the end of the season.  It just makes the rest of it more difficult.  Maybe, that’s just the kind of gut check the team needs to light a fire.  I’d still rather see a win of course.

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