Tomlin May Win More Battles, but John Harbaugh Wins the War

Ravens Pass-Catchers Through 11 Games

The Steelers won that game because they were tougher and more physical finishing plays than the Ravens were.

The sharpest example is the pass to Justice Hill that Steelers linebacker Payton Wilson wrestled away for an interception.  The play was schemed up; Hill beat his coverage; Lamar lofted a nice-enough pass.  Maybe not an absolutely pinpoint perfect pass.  There’s a version of that pass where Hill doesn’t have to slow and jump for it; instead he catches it in stride and goes steaming down the sideline.  But Lamar definitely lofted a nice pass.  It dropped into Hill’s arms.  But Payton Wilson didn’t accept that he’d been beat (which he had been).  He desperately hauled ass to the catch point to fight for the ball.  And got it!

We also see this in the Steelers pass rush.  Steelers D-lineman Cam Heyward didn’t accept that he had failed to get to the quarterback in time to stop the pass; he stuck his big paw up and got deflections at the line, two times.  Their DE Dean Lowrey also got one.  (I thought there were four or five passes batted at the line, but the box score lists “only” three.)  We see this when Isaiah Likely catches a pass on first down from the Ravens own 9-yard line and gains 8 yards on the play; Patrick Queen doesn’t just try to get Likely to the ground, “letting” the big gain stand.  He forces the fumble.

The “lenses” that I usually look at football through are not right for this game.  I’m a stat guy; but this was not a stat game.  This was a “be more tenacious than your opponent and finish plays” game.  The Harbaugh boys, not just Our Harbs but also Lil’ Bro Jim and Daddy Jack, pride themselves on a brand of football that emphasizes physicality and being tough & prepared.  The Steelers beat the Ravens at exactly that aspect of the game.  It must be galling to Harbs.

For the last few years, Ravens-Steelers games have been trips to the Twilight Zone.  It’s a Ravens game viewed thru a weird, funhouse-mirror.  Like the Star Trek episode where Spock has a beard.

To get a sense of how topsy-turvy this game was, look at the defensive side of the ball.  Odafe Oweh, whose NFL signature is not quite getting to the quarterback, had 2½ sacks!  The Ravens pass-defense, the most porous in the league, the one most prone to giving up huge plays, held the opponent without a touchdown.  They sacked the QB four times and held him to under 6.0 yards-per-attempt, for a passer rating of 67.5.  They were excellent.  And Derick Henry fumbled.  Derrick Henry!  And Justin Tucker missed two Field Goals.  That, sadly, is less of a total shock than it would’ve been 2+ years ago; but it’s still not characteristic.

The Ravens stepped thru a dimensional warp into opposite land.  And that seems to happen every damn time they play the Steelers.  Last year the Ravens lost in Pittsburgh when the offense moved the ball at will, but Baltimore receivers dropped a zillion passes and Tyler Linderbaum snapped the ball early to cost them a chance at a Field Goal to end the first half.  That’s not so much getting beat as it’s just weirdness. But weirdness is the theme of Ravens-Steelers games.

Someday I’d like to see a Ravens-Steelers game played in the normal universe, rather than the backwards “Mirror Mirror” universe.

Lamar’s Stats

A frustrating side-effect of the weirdness is, Lamar’s stats make it seem that he played like ass.  He finished 57.9% with 6.2 yards-per-attempt with a touchdown and an “interception” for a Passer Rating of 66.  That’s by far his worst statistical game of the season.  And in sports media this week Lamar is being ripped for “not showing up” vs the Steelers, and playing poorly.

Fans, Media Dump on Tucker and Lamar

When Advanced Stat sites calculate “adjusted” passing accuracy for quarterbacks, they remove some plays from consideration.  Spikes for one; when a QB spikes the ball to stop the clock, he’s not throwing “to” anyone.  Those attempts are removed.  Generally sites will remove “hit while throwing” plays.  And they will remove passes “batted at the line” by the defense.  Some sites will also remove drops.

What do we see when we “adjust” Lamar’s stats for the game?  Remove the three batted passes from his attempts; credit him for a completion on the throw to Justice Hill (since Hill did catch it before the linebacker ripped it away); and give Lamar 18 yards and a completion for the ball he doinked off of Zay Flowers’ breastplate.

The league-average Passer Rating this year is 91.6.  A 97.8 Rating would rank 13th in the league, right behind Josh Allen’s 98.2.  Lamar’s Net-yards-per-attempt for this game of 7.7 would rank 5th in the league.  This was not a poor game from the Quarterback. The stats say Lamar played poorly: the stats lie. Lamar played more than well enough to win; just as he did last year in Pittsburgh, when his teammates dropped a zillion passes.

But this is a loser argument.  You don’t get those coulda/shoulda yards back by looking at the replay and saying that was a catchable ball.  The game is finishing plays.  The Ravens didn’t.

Outcoached?

Sure.  But let’s clarify what we mean.

Usually when fans talk about a coach “getting outcoached” we are thinking of tactics.  One team unveiled a new wrinkle that the other team was unprepared for.  A seminal example is the Eagles-Patriots Super Bowl to cap off the 2017 season.  The Eagles went into the game with backup QB Nick Foles, and they executed RPO after RPO.  They scored on eight of 10 drives (with one punt and one INT).  One of the scores came on the Philly Special.

A couple other examples of “tactical outcoaching” would be:

— Most Ravens opponents in the 2019 season (they weren’t ready for Lamar + Greg Roman).

— The Ravens-Pats playoff game in the 2014 postseason where Bill Belichick used eligible/ineligible formation trickery to fool the Ravens defense.

But this wasn’t that.  The Ravens were schematically ready for Pittsburgh.  They had enough good play calls, and enough open receivers, to move the ball and score.  Certainly the Baltimore defense wasn’t caught out by anything.  Some fans have focused on Henry not being on the field for the 2-pt conversion attempt at the end of the game.  But that seems incidental to me.  For one, it shouldn’t have come to that.  If you add the two Field Goals that Justin Tucker missed, plus the two Field Goals that the Ravens gifted Pittsburgh with fumbles deep in their own territory, that’s a 12-pt swing right there in a game where the final margin was two.  This game was not lost on scheme or tactic.

Another way to “get outcoached” is by out-executing the other team.  Not schematic brilliance, but just doing better at getting the details right.  Think of the Lombardi Packers running their sweep.  The “do your job” mantra of Bill Belichick’s Patriots was about this.  I think the most succinct modern football example is the Outside Zone run of the Shanahan-Kubiak system.  Mike Shanahan’s Broncos and Gary Kubiak’s Texans (and Ravens!) teams ran that play, and they ran it to perfection.  Other teams knew it was coming, but they executed so well that it couldn’t be stopped.  That’s coaching of details with lots & lots of reps and developing deep expertise in your players.

Sunday’s game was not a “high execution” game the way I mean it, where one team’s higher skill executing their scheme defined the game.  It was more primal than that.

A third way to “get outcoached” is by one coach having his team more ready to right than the other guy does.  This is usually a strong point for Harbs.  One example is the 2012 Super Bowl.  Lil’ Bro Harbs’ Niners team was probably more talented overall than the older Ravens squad.  But Big Bro John had his guys ready.  They jumped on the Niners from the outset, and the game was on its way to being a romp when the lights went out.  After the lights came back on, the Niners talent asserted itself; if that game had gone on much longer, the Ravens probably lose.  Another example is from the 2009 playoff victory over the Patriots in Foxboro.  Famously, Joe Flacco’s leg was so bruised coming into the game that it was black-&-blue and he could hardly bend it on the team flight.  Harbs had the other guys rally: the running game and the defense jumped all over the Pats, running up a 24-0 lead in the first quarter.  They held on for the win in a playoff game where they completed just 4 passes.  That is hype / motivation coaching.

A more recent example is last year’s game vs Detroit.  The Ravens lost a game in Pittsburgh (the drops game), flew to London and beat the Titans, then flew home to host a 5-1 Lions team that was considered one of the best in the NFC.  And they stomped the life out of Detroit.  It was ugly, one of the most dominant performances over a good team that you’ll ever see.  The final was 38-6.  That’s having your guys ready to play.

On Sunday Mike Tomlin had his team readier to fight than Harbs did.  That’s not tactical scheme coaching; that’s hype/motivation/fight coaching.  It’s an area that tends to be a strength for Harbs; but it’s a stronger strength for Tomlin.  So yes, I will agree that Harns got “outcoached.”

So Tomlin is a Better Coach than Harbaugh, Right?

Well, hold on. If Tomlin has specific strengths, like “holding guys accountable” and firing them up for a game, then does Harbaugh have offsetting strengths?  I’d say so.  Here’s my list:

1. In-season improvement. Harbaugh’s teams tend to improve during the course of a season, while Tomlin’s teams pretty much are what they are from the start. Stats somewhat back that up:

Harbaugh’s teams have been much better in the second half of seasons; his record in Nov-Dec is notably higher than his overall record.  Tomlin’s teams are flatter; his record in Nov-Dec is (very slightly) below his overall record.

If you are a sharp-eyed stats person, you will notice that Tomlin’s overall win percentage is higher than both halves.  How can that be?!?  The answer is, the last game of the NFL regular season is usually in January.  Tomlin has gone 10-1 in those games!  He crushes the season finale!!  I didn’t bother to grab January games, because I acutely remember meaningless season finales for Baltimore: 2023 and 2019 and others.  And even in a meaningful game, getting one win might be more an example of hype/motivation/fight coaching rather than driving improvement across a season.  But this might be a hole in my reasoning.  If you dig into it and find out that I screwed up not including January, please let me know in the comments.

2. Playoffs

You can criticize Harbaugh’s playoff performance if you like.  But look at this:

As noted last week, Tomlin’s Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since Lamar was a Sophomore at Louisville.

3. Staffing

This isn’t the right year to talk about it, with Zach Orr struggling; but Harbaugh has done better with his Coordinator hires than Tomlin has.  Let’s look at the tape:

Some fans may disagree with my rating some of these hires as “Wins.”  By the end of their tenures in Charm City, Cam + Wink + Roman were all reviled.  But calling those hires “losses” is retconning.

• Cam Cameron had coordinated #1-scoring offenses in San Diego; getting him was considered a coup. And we loved him in Year 1, as he used the Three Headed Monster at Running Back to shepherd rookie Joe Flacco to the Conference Championship Game. By the end he had to go; but his first few years were a major success.
• Wink’s defenses were second in the entire league in (fewest) Points Allowed, behind only New England, his first three seasons as Coordinator in Baltimore. Then his Cornerback room got wiped out, and they could no longer stop anybody.  But he was a Home Run his first couple few seasons.  Elements of his scheme & terminology persisted into his protégé Mike Mac’s defense.
• Roman’s Ravens led the league in scoring in 2019. In 2020 and 2021 they were 11th and 9th in DVOA.  By the end he had to go; but like Wink he had Home Run seasons, and was largely undone by injuries.

I list Marty Mornhinweg above as an “Eh” rather than an outright loss.  My thinking is that they had to stick with the same play-calling scheme for their 31-year-old quarterback. Harbs’ hands were sort of tied in that situation.  Pees?  I didn’t love his tenure; but he Coordinated the Super Bowl-winning defense, and he was always respected nationally more than locally.

As for Pittsburgh:

Fewer overall hires here.  Harbs had three coordinators get hired away to head coaching jobs, which means turnover.  None of Tomlin’s got tabbed.  I count three Ls on this list.

The most mysterious one was the dismissal of Bruce Arians.  The Steelers had Arians on staff as WR coach when Tomlin got the head job, so Tomlin “inherited” him.  Someone decided to make Arians Coordinator.  Five years later the Steelers announced Arians had retired; then a few days after that he piped up and said hell no, I’m not retired, I don’t know what they’re trying to pull.  He went on to be named Asst Coach of the Year at Indy, win Coach of the Year at Arizona, take the Cardinals to the Conference Championship Game as a head coach, and win the whole thing in 2020 with the Tampa Bradyneers.  In other words, he had an entire career of huge success after being let go in Pittsburgh.

The whole affair was bizarre.  It made it look as though Tomlin did NOT have hire & fire authority for his own coaching staff.  That’s an L for losing a great coaching talent, and a compounding effect for making Tomlin look like he was an uninvolved bystander on his own staff.

With all that, Todd Haley was still a win for them.  It was a contentious fit, but he transformed Ben Roethlisberger from a bomber to a ball-out-quick quarterback, probably extending his career.  The Fichtner interval was less successful; and the Matt Canada era was a disaster.  Arthur Smith is too early to call.  (Which is also what I hope Zach Orr is.)

Three Ls for Tomlin vs one for Harbs; two Home Runs for Harbs – I might go 2⅔ under the theory that both Wink and Roman had Home Run stretches – vs none for Tomlin.  That might be unfair; maybe a Steelers fan would argue that Teryl Austin qualifies as a Home Run, or maybe Haley.  But I think overall, Staffing is more a strength for Harbs than for Tomlin.

4. QB Development

We mentioned this last week: Tomlin has never developed a quarterback from first year in the league to established pro.  Not ever.  Harbs has four names to his credit:

• Starters: Joe Flacco (SB MVP), Lamar Jackson (2x league MVP)
• Contributors: Tyrod Taylor (14-yr career, .500 record, Pro Bowl appearance), Tyler Huntley (5-yr career, Pro Bowl appearance)

Yeah, Tyrod and Tyler aren’t awesome.  But Tomlin hasn’t developed nobody.  It’s a critical job in the NFL, and in 18 years as a head coach Tomlin has not done it.  The Steelers’ answer to “developing” a solution to their QB problem this year was to sign a guy who won the Super Bowl in 2013 and turns 36 next week.  They had to shop for “winner sauce” in the free agency market because Tomlin cannot develop a QB.

5. “Strategy”

I don’t know what else to call this.  Harbs rode defense and running to his first two Conference Championship appearances.  Then he put it all on Joe’s arm to win the Super Bowl.  Then he changed philosophies to go with Gary Kubiak’s pure West Coast passing scheme plus the Outside Zone running game.  Then he screwed up, letting his brother talk him into Marc Trestman – when he had Kyle Shanahan in the building to interview!!!!  Terrible.  Wandered offensively for a couple years trying to make chicken salad out of the tail end of Flacco’s career with Trestman & Mornhinweg.  Those years are not to Harbs’ “credit.”  But then he reinvented completely with the Read Option game, Lamar and Greg Roman.  Then he reinvented again, with Todd Monken’s high-scoring attack.

Along the way Harbs has partnered closely with strong GMs in Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta.

Harbs was at the forefront of incorporating “analytics” into his football operations, whether that was going for it on 4th down or deciding to build defenses “back to front” because the data shows that coverage is more important than pass rush.  Then he moved away from leading in 4th-down aggressiveness after it became apparent that teams were playing the Ravens differently, and the “right” 4th-down decisions were not working out for them.  Harbs worked with the competition committee to clean up the “what the hell is a catch?” nonsense from several years ago.  “What’s a catch?” is not a story anymore, and Harbs is a big part of the reason why.

Under this category of “strategy” or “vision” I’m including overall success.  In the same years that Harbs has been losing head-to-head vs Tomlin, here’s how their teams have been doing overall:

Tomlin has been winning the battles but losing the war.

You may say “That’s not Harbaugh, it’s really all Lamar Jackson!”  Okay: but Lamar didn’t just “happen” to Harbaugh. Harbaugh played an important role in the Ravens drafting Lamar (as reported in Dan Pompei’s piece in The Athletic from July 2019).  Where is Tomlin’s strategic voice in the same time span?  Lamar was still on the board when the Steelers drafted safety Terrell Edmunds in 2018.  Edmunds was a solid player; but Lamar went just four picks later.  Yeah, the Steelers still had Roethlisberger at the time; but Big Ben was 36.  The Ravens still had Flacco, but they were able to establish a succession plan.

Harbaugh has twice in the past five years fielded the best team in football, in 2019 and 2023.  Pittsburgh’s best team in those years was probably the 2020 squad, which was ranked 8th in DVOA.  And yeah, those Baltimore teams face planted in the playoffs.  But Tomlin’s teams with Big Ben, Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown never came close to living up to their talent. They peaked with a 36-17 loss to the Patriots in the playoffs.

So yeah: Tomlin outcoached Harbs on Sunday.  I think overall Tomlin is a little stronger in the one-game hype/motivation/fight coaching area.  Harbs is pretty good at that; Tomlin seems better.  But I think Harbs has a list of offsetting strengths, not the least of which is a vision for the team and an eye on the season as a whole.  Not gonna lie, it kills me that the Ravens keep losing head-to-head vs the Steelers.  But this Ravens team has a higher ceiling than this Steelers team. Pittsburgh is not making it out of the divisional round this year, if they even get to it.  Hopefully the Ravens capitalize on their chances to show it.

Stats

Here are your stats for the game:

(Data from PFR)

Welcome back, Isaiah Likely!  He played just 17 snaps in Week 9 (one target, no catches) then sat out Week 10 with a hamstring.  If there’s a silver lining on offense to this game, it’s Likely’s return. He racks up both a QS and an explosive.

Bateman gets the tilde of “kind-of” or “almost” in the Explosives column for catching a 19-yarder.  I don’t add those to the Season Stat box (next section), but I do like to acknowledge them somehow.  Justice Hill was the king of “almosts” earlier in the year.

The Ravens streak of consecutive games with a hundred-yard receiver gets halted as six games.

(Data from PFR except last 3 cols)

Zay Flowers is still 5th in the NFL in receiving yards.  Rashod Bateman is next among Ravens, clocking in at 31st.  Given that there are 32 teams, that’s technically a “#1 receiver” total.  Flowers is T-13th in the league in “Successful” receptions, with 42.

Mark Andrews is 19th in the league in YTS.  Likely is 38th, and Bateman also makes the league’s top 50 at #47.  Bateman is 20th in the league in Yards-per-Target.  Andrews is 28th, and Flowers is #45.  Andrews is 12th in the league in receiving Success Rate; Likely is 19th.  Receiving Success Rate is dominated by Tight Ends; 10 of the top 20 receiving Success Rates are from Tight Ends.

Diontae Johnson’s gotta be frustrated.  Thru three games he’s done pretty much nothing for his new team.  The bye is coming up in two weeks.  If we had to pick a time for him to start showing something, I’d bet on after the bye.  But I also think that Johnson may have been acquired just for insurance, to step in should Bateman or Nelson Agholor miss time.  If the Ravens frontline guys stay healthy, and Tylan Wallace keeps flashing, there may not be a chance for Johnson to shine.  That would be really annoying news for Johnson; but not actually bad news for the team.  It’s not a bad thing if you don’t have to make an insurance claim.

Lamar still leads the league in Passer Rating, Net-Yards-per-Attempt (includes Sacks) and TD%.  He’s second in regular Yards-per-Attempt (does not include Sacks) to Jared Goff, with 9.0.  “Nine” is a high number in that stat.  The league leader the past several years (not last year) has usually had around 8.9 or 8.8.

Your Ravens are still the #1 offense by DVOA.  They’re #1 in Yards-per-play, and Red Zone TD%.  They’ve fallen to #1 in Passing YTS, to Detroit, but not by much; a tenth of a point:

DVOA still has the Ravens at 98.1% to make the playoffs.  That’s down 1 percent from last week; but still good for 4th in the AFC, a decimal point behind Houston. And, yes, ahead of Pittsburgh.  DVOA’s Playoff Odds also has the Ravens as the second most likely team to win the Super Bowl!  Detroit is the prohibitive favorite, winning in 43% of their simulations.  Baltimore leads the next group, winning in 12.5% of simulations, just ahead of KC and Buffalo at 11% each.  Then a group with single-digit percentages.

Next Up: HarBowl!  The Ravens travel to San Diego California for a family get-together.

Lil’ Bro Harbs has already remade the Chargers in his image.  They are 9th overall in DVOA, with the #13 offense and the #10 defense.  That’s Greg Roman and former Ravens assistant Jesse Minter coordinating the units.  You know this team schematically very well, because you watched it play in Baltimore for years.  Note, there is absolutely no truth to the rumor that Chargers Defensive Coordinator Jesse Minter is really Garrett Downing with a fake beard drawn on.

Many Ravens fans did not enjoy the Greg Roman offense.  But whatever our feelings were about it, that offense posed problems for teams.  Now we get to face those problems.  This game figures to be a dogfight.

Does it make a difference to go into this game coming off a loss? If the Ravens had travelled to Junior Harbaugh’s place coming off a hard-fought win over Pittsburgh, would that make them more likely to succumb to any kind of “trap game” nature of the matchup?  Are they instead likely to be pissed off, coming off a week where the team got out-toughed and out-physical’d?  Will they want to show that’s not who they are, and make a statement?  We’ll see.

As an “analyst,” I know that winning a division game is more important than winning an out-of-division game.  I know that Harbaugh, as a Head Coach, is well aware that it was more important to beat Pittsburgh than it would be to beat the Chargers.  But – but – I can’t help but wonder if deep, deep in his heart-of-hearts, Harbaugh won’t be the teeniest little bit happier to have this game, than he would to have the Pittsburgh game and drop this one.  He might strut a little taller walking in for family Christmas dinner.

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