Get Ready to be Propped Up!

AFC North football is officially upon us. The Ravens travel to Cincinnati to face the (1-3) Bengals in a game that feels like a must win for both teams. Division wins are paramount for teams with playoff aspirations, which both teams are, and whoever comes out on the winning side will have some serious momentum heading into next week. The Ravens winning formula has been quite simple — dominate the trenches. Through four weeks, they lead the NFL in both rushing offense with 220.3 rushing yards per game and rushing defense surrendering only 57.8 yards per contest. That trend should continue vs a Cincinnati team that ranks in the bottom half of the league in both statistical categories.

And that’s exactly what we will lean on to cash in on our player props for this week.

A (4-1) week last week brings us to (15-5) on the season. Here are the player props we are taking for Sunday to build off our big start.

Let’s stay hot!

Derrick Henry O 79.5 Rushing Yards (-125 ESPN Bet)

The Bengals rushing defense leaves a lot to be desired, and Derrick Henry is toting the rock better than any back in the league through the first four weeks. Per NFL Pro, Henry has generated a league high +185 rushing yards over expected this season, which is the most among running backs, and his 26 missed tackles forced ranks 2nd in the league. Henry has a combined 49 carries over the last two weeks, the sheer volume of carries doesn’t seem feasible throughout a whole NFL season for the 30-year-old back, but Henry is an anomaly, and this matchup is too good not to go back to in a must win division game. The Ravens will feed The King once again and he should have no problem reaching this mark against a vulnerable Bengals defense.

Mark Andrews O 24.5 Receiving Yards (+105 ESPN Bet)

For a variety of reasons, Mark Andrews has been somewhat of a forgotten asset in the Ravens passing offense, and that is a very scary thought for opposing defenses. No team should understand how dangerous Andrews can be than the Cincinnati Bengals, as Andrews has had his way with this team throughout his career. In 11 games, Andrews has posted 52 catches for 601 yards and 11 touchdowns against the Bengals, per StatMuse. Andrews value to this offense so far has come from his dominant run blocking, which keeps him on the field and makes him an available option in play action/quick passing situations. Isaiah Likely has become the primary pass catching tight end in Todd Monken’s offense so far, but I’m banking on the longstanding connection Andrews and Lamar have developed over the years to rekindle, especially against a foe they know how to exploit.

Bold Predictions: Another Rumble in the Jungle

Zack Moss U 44.5 Rushing Yards (-125 ESPN Bet)

Fading the opposing teams running back has repeatedly been a profitable decision. As stated earlier, the Ravens are tops in the league in defending the run and look to get trench monster Michael Pierce back in the mix this week, as he was a full participant throughout this week of practice. To make matters worse for Moss, the emergence of fellow backfield mate Chase Brown will certainly hurt his stock. Last week vs the Panthers, both Brown and Moss handled 15 carries. Moss churned out 51 yards on 3.4 yards per carry while Brown turned his opportunities into 80 yards on 5.3 yards per carry, adding two scores. If the Bengals are going with the ‘ride the hot hand’ approach, they may look Brown’s way often in a must win game for them.

Chase Brown O 8.5 Rushing Attempts (Even ESPN Bet)

Bengals fans over the last few weeks have been wondering why Chase Brown hasn’t gotten enough opportunities, and for good reason. His 6.3 YPC this season is elite, especially when you compare it to the 3.9 YPC clip fellow backfield made Zack Moss has posted this year. The Bengals’ offense is going to need to remain efficient if they want to keep up with the Ravens on Sunday, and don’t be surprised when they look Chase Brown’s way more often than not. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands and gives the Bengals offense a dimension that Zack Moss simply cannot offer. Brown almost doubled this amount last week vs the Panthers and produced with those opportunities, giving the Bengals coaching staff no reason not to go back to him this Sunday.

Derrick Henry Longest Rush O 16.5 Yards (-105 ESPN Bet)

The strategy with Derrick Henry is no secret. Get him going early and often and wear out the defense, putting them in a position where they are forced to tackle the 6’3″, 250-pound back 30 times over. The Ravens have perfected this strategy over the last 2 weeks and Henry has put up monster numbers over that stretch. Henry has been particularly explosive this season, having 10+ yards rushing on 12.5% of his carries thus far (Per NFL Pro), his highest rate since the 2020 season where he rushed for over 2,000 yards. Last week, Henry didn’t need much time to get going as he broke the longest run in Ravens franchise history on his very first carry. Having Lamar Jackson alongside Henry will always force opposing defenses to remain sound in their gap assignments, and OC Monken has done a great job, using that to his advantage and scheming up opportunities for Henry to get to the second level. I expect that trend to continue, which will lead to Henry having multiple runs that exceed this mark come Sunday.

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/10/05/sports-betting/division-games-and-prop-bets/