Dodgers vs. Padres freeway series looks to be a vicious dog fight full of surprises

Ever since the San Diego Padres became an expansion MLB franchise in 1969, they have always played second fiddle to the Los Angeles Dodgers, their big brothers who reside about three hours up the 5 Freeway. Historically, the Dodgers have dominated with a 527-430 edge over the years, and 29-20 over the last three seasons. So when the Friars swept the Atlanta Braves in the 2024 Wild Card round, Shohai Ohtani and his boys were lurking as the next opponent. Certainly, the NLDS would be a battle that wouldn’t end well for the Friars. Then again, maybe not.

You see, the Padres beat the Dodgers 8-5 in regular season games this year for the first time since 2010, and after a modest start, were the hottest team in the league during the second half of the campaign. Also, several players on the current squad were around when the Padres knocked Los Angeles out of the post season in 2022. That said, this is a club with a new skipper, a perfect mix of kids and veterans plus unlike last season, amazing chemistry. What a concept.

“We’re just a bunch of grinders who believe in each other,” says super star right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. on the shelf with a hip injury until after the all-star break.

The team’s success after a mediocre 2023 season has the entire city in a frenzy. Baseball is the only major professional sport in San Diego, and over three million fans made downtown’s Petco Park their second home.

“Every night is a party at Petco,” smiles first year manager Mike Shildt. “The atmosphere is electric.”

Of course, the crowds are just as rabid in Chavez Ravine, where the Dodgers will host the opening two games in this best of five series. As usual, Los Angeles won the NL West, but it was a tight race right down to the wire. The sensational Ohtani hit leadoff most of the time for longtime manager Dave Roberts, and was a one man wreaking crew, creating a new 50-50 club for home runs and stolen bases. Next up is versatile right fielder Mookie Betts, followed by first baseman Freddie Freeman, left fielder Teoscar Hernandez and catcher Will Smith. Together they kick start probably the most dangerous top heavy lineups in the game.

On the other hand, the Padres counter with a comparable group headed by NL batting champion Luis Arraez, outfielders Tatis and Jurickson Profar, then third baseman Manny Machado and ROY candidate Jackson Merrill in the five hole. Drafted as a shortstop, the 21 year old Merrill has been smooth as butter in center field and clearly the season’s biggest surprise. San Diego’s offensive attack is more of the traditional variety, with Arraez the straw that stirs the drink for the heavy hitters like Tatis Jr., Machado, Merrill and veteran Xander Bogaerts. Another shocker is the steady bat of catcher Kyle Higashioka, the best ninth place hitter in baseball who blasted a career high 17 bombs. The former New York Yankee is one of several senior statesmen on the field and in the clubhouse, along with Profar and Bogaerts. Then there’s the ringleader Machado, who everyone calls, “the minister.”

While both sides are capable of lighting up the scoreboard with runs, pitching is what wins games in October and the Dodgers have issues in that department. Out for the season are reliable staples like Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin and ace Tyler Glasnow, so instead enter newcomers Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and holdover Walker Buehler, fresh off the IL. As a result, Los Angeles has had to make adjustments with plenty of bullpen games. And that area is very well stocked and ready.

The Padres rotation was looking good until number two guy Joe Musgrove, a local hero, had to leave in the fourth inning of game two against the Braves with right elbow tightness. Musgrove had just returned in August from an elbow problem and had pitched well, posting a 2.15 ERA in nine starts.

“Obviously, I’m frustrated,” admitted Musgrove, a former high school star in San Diego’s east country. “I’m not sure what the future holds for me right now.”

Fortunately for the Friars, staff ace Dylan Cease and Michael King, who threw a seven inning shutout in the first win over Atlanta, will be ready to go on the road. Then Yu Darvich, now back in the fold, will start game three at Petco. To fill the Musgrove void, veteran southpaw Martin Perez will be ready if a game four is needed. And the Padres also have a well fortified pen to mix and match.

For those reasons, I’m picking the Padres to prevail in a short series against the Dodgers. That is, unless Ohtani is secretly summoned for mound duties. In that scenario, all bets are off, no pun intended.

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