Can Suspect Pass Defense Slow Gun-Slingin’ Jameis Winston?

Dev Panchwagh contributed to this article

Defense

Stack the Edge vs. Run

The Ravens allowed 125 rushing yards to the Buccaneers in Week 7, their worst game of run defense of the season. Tackling was a lesser issue compared with holding gaps on the interior and setting a hard edge on the outside.

The Browns have run the ball just 35.4% of the time this year since they frequently find themselves trying to overcome a deficit. When they do run the ball, their success rate is just 35.7%, the sixth-worst in the NFL, with just 17 explosive rushes and three rushing touchdowns on the year. Jerome Ford is averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season, but Nick Chubb had just 22 yards on 11 attempts in his first game back from last year’s brutal injury. Their propensity to play from behind also means they face light boxes at a league-high 63.7% clip, with stacked boxes just 12.7% of the time. Still, the Browns struggle to run the ball between the tackles, ranking 28th in efficiency, while they rise to 10th rushing the ball outside the tackles.

One possible solution to bounce back against Cleveland is fortifying rotational depth on the interior of the defensive line. Travis Jones played a season-low 25 snaps in Tampa Bay, sitting out large chunks of the second half. Although he returned to practice on Thursday, he reportedly didn’t do much, and if he goes, asking him for another 40-snap effort might be too much for his ankle. Broderick Washington is trending to play on Sunday, but the Ravens will still rely heavily on Nnamdi Madubuike, Michael Pierce, and Brent Urban. Two of those players are over 30. Baltimore needs them fresh and healthy in the long run. A practice squad activation would go a long way towards shoring up run defense and taking the pressure off this unit in the second half.

On the other hand, Roquan Smith and Trenton Simpson had solid games against the run in Week 7, so the Ravens could stick with lighter boxes and dare the Browns to run into the teeth of the defense. Kyle Hamilton should be playing down on the line of scrimmage more often to help set the edge and chase down ballcarriers from the backside, especially with Marlon Humphrey potentially out. And the Browns don’t have the outside receivers to make the Ravens pay for keeping Hamilton in the box.

The Ravens need to continue the trend of other teams against the Browns this year: shut down their run game early in the game (and on early downs) and force them to pass the ball.

Scheme Up Pressure

The Ravens aren’t facing the rock-solid Browns offensive line of years past. They’re allowing the fifth-highest pressure rate (38.4%), the most sacks (35), and the highest sack rate (12.2%) this year. That represents an opportunity for a get-right game for a Ravens pass rush that consistently gave Baker Mayfield too much time in the pocket in Week 7.

Zach Orr has tried to get pressure with four rushers this season to devote more resources to coverage, with a 19.3% blitz rate and 30.3% pressure rate that both rank in the bottom 10. He was even more extreme in Week 7, blitzing just 11.5% of the time with a measly 21.2% pressure rate.

Orr has adhered to conventional wisdom to provide more coverage support on the back end, but he should turn up the pressure on Jameis Winston and an exploitable offensive line. He doesn’t need to run a ton of Cover 0 blitzes, but even five- or six-man pass rushes will force Winston to speed up his processing and decision making. At best, that can lead to major mistakes and turnovers, but even forcing the ball out quickly will enable the secondary to drive downhill and limit yards after the catch.

Arthur Maulet’s return will bring the slot blitz back into play for the Ravens defense. Hamilton should be used in blitz packages as well, both up the middle and off the edge.

Orr should also use Simpson more as a blitzer than Smith, keeping the veteran in coverage duties and unleashing the second-year linebacker’s athleticism as a looper to shoot gaps on delayed blitzes.

Dialing up more blitzes will force more mistakes from Winston and the Browns offensive line in their first start together this season.

Anticipate Jameis’ Aggressiveness

Surprise, surprise: Winston entered the game for the Browns and immediately threw past the sticks on eight of his 11 passing attempts, the highest rate in a single-game this season (min. 10 attempts).

Winston is known as an aggressive quarterback – who can forget his infamous 30/30 in 2019? He loves to hold onto the ball and try to push it downfield, something the Ravens need to prepare for and take advantage of. However, Baltimore has struggled to defend the first down marker this season, allowing the fourth-highest success rate (60.4%) and the second-most total EPA (+64.5) on passes beyond the sticks.

One answer is man coverage, where the Ravens have played better this season. Their 3.1 average yards of separation ranks first in the NFL, led by a stingy Brandon Stephens who is averaging just 1.8 yards of separation when targeted. After trading Amari Cooper, the Browns don’t have any threatening matchups for the Ravens secondary, even if Humphrey can’t play. Maulet is more than capable of taking on Elijah Moore in the slot, and Nate Wiggins is growing with every game. Some good old-fashioned Cover 2 man in obvious passing situations will allow Baltimore’s cornerbacks to get aggressive in press coverage with help over the top.

But Orr should also take advantage of Winston’s aggressiveness by deploying disguised zone coverages that change the picture pre- and post-snap. Winston will be quick to attack windows that he thinks are open that may have a rotating defender lurking nearby. Those coverages will either force Winston to make bad decisions or hold onto the ball in the pocket, giving the Ravens’ pass rush more time to get home.

It’s against his nature to stay patient and take underneath passes, and the Browns have just +28 yards after the catch over expected this year. Winston’s lack of reps this year may give him trouble finding a rhythm in the quick passing game, especially against press-man and disguised coverages. That’s where the Bucs succeeded last week, while Mayfield threw two interceptions in the intermediate area of the field. The Ravens should emphasize closing to the ball underneath while continuing to attack the catch point further downfield.

Offense

Identify and Counter Pressures

As usual, Jim Schwartz has designed an aggressive, blitz-heavy defense that gets quick pressure to force the ball out and let the back seven tackle. Their 38.7% pressure rate is the seventh-highest in the NFL, with a 2.62-second time to throw and 2.50-second time to pressure that both rank second.

The Browns’ 36.1% blitz rate is the third-highest in the league, but Lamar Jackson has absolutely shredded the blitz this season, so Schwartz may think twice before sending a 61.5% blitz rate like Todd Bowles did on Monday night.

He’ll still try to send plenty of action at Jackson, utilizing a mix of blitzes and simulated pressures to force the two-time MVP to hold onto the ball and diagnose the defense pre-snap instead of having the answers before the snap like he has most of this season.

The blitzes will often come in the form of overloads, with the defensive line attacking in one direction to clear a free path for rushers from the second level. Justice Hill has been excellent in pass protection this year, identifying blitzes pre-snap and blocking with a physical edge.

Hill helps on one LB and blocks the other on the pick stunt. Hill is incredible! https://t.co/n05yDIJTsD pic.twitter.com/ofUK8swVSd

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 24, 2024

The Ravens will need more of that on Sunday while also coming up with answers for Schwartz’s simulated pressures that drop would-be blitzers into coverage over the middle of the field. Jackson has consistently used the middle of the field to replace blitzers and give his receivers opportunities for yards after the catch, but he’ll need to use the sidelines more this week to force defenders to cover more space from the line of scrimmage.

With Zay Flowers’ status for Sunday in doubt, the Ravens will need Isaiah Likely to find soft spots against the defense and pick up yards after the catch on the edges of the field. Monken should also dial up the screen game again, which will work against blitzes with defenders rushing downfield and simulated pressures with defenders trying to get back into coverage.

Stay in Favorable Down & Distance

“The Baltimore Ravens’ biggest opponent is the Ravens themselves,” said Bill Belichick on the ManningCast on Monday night as the Ravens racked up several holding penalties that nullified positive plays and put the Ravens behind the sticks. The offense had a few other operational errors too, including another aborted snap that hit a motioning Zay Flowers and a backwards pass from Lamar Jackson that nearly turned into a fumble return touchdown for the defense.

Penalties and unforced errors have been an issue; even with some questionable officiating, the Ravens are setting themselves back on offense far too often. Staying clean on early downs doesn’t just set up easier first down conversions, it also keeps Schwartz from getting into his creative blitzes in obvious passing situations.

Jackson and Tyler Linderbaum have to get on the same page in their silent snap count on the road, and Todd Monken may want to consider orbit motion instead of jet motion on key downs to keep the snap clear of traffic.

Monken has also brought back the Ravens’ screen game, which has been a huge plus for their offense this year. Jackson just has to make sure he’s throwing those passes forward, not just to lead his receivers upfield but to make sure a missed pass is an incompletion, not a fumble. Jackson also needs to get the ball out quicker on screens and RPOs (or just hold onto it and run, in case of a broken play) to avoid offensive pass interference and ineligible man downfield penalties.

As for the holding, the Ravens just need to remember that their rushing offense is powerful enough that they don’t need to hold. Jackson and Henry are so explosive and elusive that they blow through gaps and minimize tackling opportunities for defender. It’s ideal if blockers can lock on and fully seal their block, but the potency of the Ravens ground attack means solid initial displacement will often be enough for a positive play.

It’s not like the Browns have a particularly good run defense. They’re middling in most statistics, but have allowed 29 rushes of 10+ yards this season, the fifth-most in the NFL. They run stacked boxes at the league’s highest rate (37.1%) with the league’s lowest light box rate (22.8%), setting up another explosive day outside the tackles for Henry.

The Ravens should consistently pound the ball from under center on early downs to set the tone up front and stay ahead of the sticks. It was exciting to see the Ravens pull off several lengthy first down conversions after their penalties against the Buccaneers, but ideally, they’re not in that situation in the first place. The ceiling of this offense is virtually infinite if they can handle the little things as well as they pull off spectacular plays. But some of these errors won’t be so forgiving in the playoffs, where the Ravens may not get the same chances to make up for them as they did on Sunday.

If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Just stop getting in your own way!

Man-Beaters Into Space

Partially as a result of their blitzing tendencies, the Browns run man coverage at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Cornerback Denzel Ward is another reason, ranking first with 10 forced incompletions and second with a 90.3 overall grade in single coverage this season, according to Pro Football Focus, with zero touchdowns allowed.

Ward plays almost exclusively on the left side of the defense (or the right side of the offense), so Todd Monken has some schematic levers to pull to limit his impact. He’s used twins and trips formations to occupy a cornerback with a tight end (or even Patrick Ricard) on the closed side while setting up a mismatch on the other end.

The Browns’ tendency to run man often leaves them without help nearby after the catch, letting receivers make one man miss and take off. Cleveland has allowed +178 yards after the catch over expected this year, the fourth-highest in the league.

Flowers is obviously the Ravens’ primary YAC threat, but if he can’t go, Monken still has other options to spread to the ball around to. Rashod Bateman has been getting praise for his separation before the catch, but he’s underrated as a ballcarrier. He demonstrated why against the Bucs: first, he gets so much separation that he has more space to operate after the catch, and second, he is adept at positioning his body to explode downfield after the catch. That same agility and understanding of leverage that he uses to get wide open is just as effective at juking out defenders after the catch.

Nelson Agholor also has an opportunity to step up. He hasn’t been heavily involved in the passing game, but his +48 YACOE lead the Ravens. He is excellent at catching the ball in stride and takes strong angles upfield with his sneaky speed turning medium gains into chunk plays.

The Browns’ tendency to stack the box will also offer chances for Justice Hill to attack the flats and turn upfield, especially if he starts out in motion. That will force linebackers to cross the formation where Monken can create some extra traffic. Tampa Bay ran several rub routes to success in Week 7, something Monken should graft into his playbook. Using motion into crossers and return routes will also send receivers flying into open space where Jackson can quickly deliver the ball and let his playmakers work after the catch.

1-on-1 Matchup: Myles Garrett vs. Ronnie Stanley

This isn’t just the biggest 1-on-1 battle of the game – it might be the marquee matchup of the year for both players so far this year.

On one side is Myles Garrett, who leads the NFL with 19 pressures under 2.5 seconds this season. His 0.68-second get off time and 20.0% pressure rate both rank in the top three among edge rushers at least 100 pass rushes. Ravens fans are all too familiar with his ability to wreak havoc off the edge as one of the few players who has a shot at closing in on Lamar Jackson in the open field.

Opposing Garrett will be Ronnie Stanley, who is playing the best football of his career post-ankle injury. He hasn’t allowed a sack all year – the only left tackle with at least 50 pass blocking snaps – and didn’t allow a single pressure in Week 7 against the Buccaneers’ heavy blitzing.

These two have locked horns on several occasions, with Stanley consistently getting the better of Garrett when healthy. The Browns have even resorted to moving Garrett around to get him away from Stanley onto a better matchup. But in pure passing situations, when the Ravens need to pick up a chunk of yards through the air, Stanley will have to contain Garrett flying off the edge with his diverse array of moves and counters.

All advanced stats via NextGen Stats unless otherwise noted.

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Source: https://russellstreetreport.com/2024/10/25/ravens-battle-plans/jameis-winston/