Best Player Props for Ravens-Commanders

In the potential game of the year in the NFL so far, the Ravens traveled to Cincinnati and pulled off a miraculous 41-38 victory. It looked dark at times, but Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense flipped a switch in the second half that allowed them to keep pace with Joe Burrow and the Bengals. There’s no other way around it at this point: the Ravens offense has been exceptional. The Jackson-Derrick Henry tandem has been everything Ravens fans could have hoped for, the offensive line seems to have jelled, and Lamar’s weapons have consistently done their jobs at a high level. All those factors have led to a profitable start for us as we were able to go 5-0 on our player props last week, bringing our overall record to 20-5 on the season.

The Washington Commanders are a worthy opponent, but their defense has struggled this season, giving us another prime opportunity to cash in on more player props.

Let’s stay hot!

Zay Flowers O 59.5 Receiving Yards (+105 ESPN Bet)

Zay Flowers is an absolute playmaker, and this is a mark he should have no problem eclipsing. In the first half of last week’s game, the Bengals game plan was to sell out to neutralize Derrick Henry, stacking the box and leaving 1-on-1 matchups on the outside. Flowers was the primary beneficiary of that game plan as he had his most productive game to date with seven receptions on 12 targets for 111 yards. The Commanders, a team that comes into this game ranked in the bottom half of the league in just about every rushing defense metric, will most likely have a similar game plan. The Commanders also don’t have a cornerback on their roster that can guard Zay on an island, and Todd Monken knows it. Expect Monken to dial up some intermediate/deep looks for the Ravens wide outs in an attempt to keep the defense off balance, leading to another productive day by Zay.

Justice Hill 15+ Rushing Yards (-115 ESPN Bet)

The Ravens have gotten Justice Hill involved more and more as the season has rolled along. Last Sunday in Cincinnati, Hill was on the field for 53% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps. That is a clip I wouldn’t expect to see a lot more of as the game script favored him in the higher tempo, pass-centric offense the Ravens had to run to keep up with Burrow and the Bengals. With that being said, the uptick in snaps for Hill shows that the Ravens have immense trust in the fifth-year running back. Hill has reached this mark in the last four games, making -115 a good value play for only 15 rushing yards. Hill plays a vital role in the grand scheme of things for this Ravens team; keep King Henry as fresh as possible for the late season stretch. His 4.9 yards per carry gives the Ravens every reason to continue making him a key part of this offense in this stage of the season.

Derrick Henry Longest Rush O 16.5 (-135 ESPN Bet)

It doesn’t matter how it covers; it just matters if it does. Two weeks ago, Henry housed an 87-yard touchdown on the Ravens’ first play from scrimmage. Last week, Henry decided to wait until the offense’s final play from scrimmage to cover with his 51-yard rush in overtime that put the Ravens in field goal range. We are going back to it this week in a favorable matchup. Per NFL Pro, the Commanders have allowed a league-high 23 explosive runs (10+ yards) on just 110 total carries. That amounts to a 20.9% explosive run rate which ranks last in the NFL. Henry has 11 such runs through the first five weeks of the season. It’s a matter of when, not if for Henry as he seems to be getting stronger as the season progresses.

Lamar Jackson U 0.5 Interceptions (-130 ESPN Bet)

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the fact that this is the first Lamar prop to make it here all year. I’m not quite sure how we’ve made it this far and done so well without banking on the two-time MVP but here we are. As we all know, Lamar has been phenomenal this season. One of his best qualities thus far has been protecting the ball. In five weeks, Lamar has thrown only one pick, and there’s a legitimate argument that Rashod Bateman is to blame for that as the ball deflected off his hands and into the defender’s chest. The Commanders on the other hand are one of only three teams that has yet to record an interception. The value at -130 is certainly there when you take those numbers into consideration, so we’re not going to overthink it and bank on these trends to continue.

 Zach Ertz O 29.5 Receiving yards (-105 ESPN Bet)

Tight ends can be a rookie quarterback’s best friend, especially a veteran like Ertz. Last week against the Cleveland Browns, Ertz saw eight targets from Jayden Daniels, good for a 32% target share. The Ravens offense has had no trouble getting off to hot starts all season, forcing opposing offenses into passing situations for the majority of the second half. If that holds true this week, Ertz should continue to see a healthy number of targets. The Ravens defense has been vulnerable against tight ends this year as well. Brock Bowers and Jake Ferguson both eclipsed 90 yards, and Dalton Kincaid had five receptions on seven targets for 47 yards. The Ravens should make it an emphasis to not let Daniels beat them over the top as he has already proven to be an elite deep ball thrower. If the Ravens are successful in that, Daniels will be forced to look Ertz’s way often. Factor in what’s sure to be one of the loudest crowds Daniels has seen to date, and the Ertz safety valve will be that much more enticing for Daniels.

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