Even Stat Analysts Don't Know How To Feel About The Yankees

I had a few readers tell me we’ve been too negative lately. Okay, you can feel the way you do. I won’t try to change your mind, but I’m not feeling so positive about the direction this team is going in. I know I am not the only one, but interestingly enough another source feels even less optimistic than I do.

I have to say I am a baseballreference.com enthusiast. I love their site and use it DAILY. Have you seen their 2024 MLB playoff odds? Check it out HERE. Now I have to say, I don’t have warm and fuzzy feelings about this season, but I am not feeling as pessimistic as they are. So, to the folks who want to read more positivity it’s a start.

Honestly though, The Post has a good write up of what this prediction really is based on, you can check that out HERE. So, their predictions come from a calculation of run differential and difficulty of the schedule from the previous years’ last 100 games. Okay, that’s an oddly specific calculation that has absolutely nothing to do with the number of active injuries on the team or the player and their statistics in that sample size. So instead, this prediction is based on run differential and the schedule difficulty. Even if their model used a different sample size (not just the last 100) I don’t think the final result would be positive. The Yankees gave up 36 more runs than they scored last year. When the team batting average is hovering around the .230s it’s a pretty bleak outlook.

I get it, the Yankees were AWFUL last year, and we didn’t acquire enough upgrades this winter. Juan Soto alone doesn’t fix this team. Gerrit Cole is going to miss significant time…. it’s a gamble. But am I the only one who thinks Baseball Reference’s predictions of a 2.7% chance to make the postseason are low? What about their prediction to win 71 games? This team isn’t exactly sexy looking on paper, but that is a pretty intense prediction.

I’m looking at other predictions like Fangraphs, who predict the Yankees to win 88 games and BetRivers Sportsbook predicts 91 wins and scratching my head. I do not think this team is a 90+ win team right now. Pitching is a big concern, and with Cole out I don’t feel confident with the rest of the rotation. I also think Soto is an upgrade to the offense, but the rest of the team couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. Look at team stats and you will see Gleyber Torres (.273 BA), and Aaron Judge (.267 BA) were our best hitters. Scary thought considering Judge only played in 106 games due to injuries. The Yankees have a lot of work to do to win 88+ games. I’m not sure if new hitting coach James Rowson can make this miracle happen so soon.

So, do I think the Yankees will have another tough year? All signs point to yes at this point. Do I think the Yankees are a 71-win team? NO and they better not be that bad. I love Baseball Reference, but their analytics guys are just as bad as the Yankees analytic nerds. 

That’s not a good comparison.

–Jeana Bellezza-Ochoa