Buy ‘Em or Deny ‘Em: Is Hunter Renfroe The Next Joey Gallo Or Can He Be More Than That?
by Eric Stashin (aka The Rotoprofessor)
There has never been a question about the power upside that Hunter Renfroe brings to the table. Even playing half his games in Petco Park, the potential is there to routinely hit 35+ HR (he has had 26 HR in the Majors each of the last two seasons, despite getting less than 500 PA per season). The question has always been whether or not he can pair it with a usable average, and having hit .248 last season the questions certainly prevail.
The biggest question is going to be his ability to make consistent contact. After a 29.2% strikeout rate in 2017 he posted a much more respectable 24.7% last season. While still elevated his SwStr% dropped from 15.0% to 13.5%, though before we get too excited his Whiff% against both breaking balls and offspeed pitches remained underwhelming:
Year
|
Hard
|
Breaking Ball
|
Offspeed
|
---|---|---|---|
2017 | 14.81% | 18.74% | 12.14% |
2018 | 11.51% | 18.68% | 17.82% |
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that opposing pitchers were throwing him fewer fastballs in September (56.06%). While it didn’t catch up with him yet, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see it happen moving forward.
Renfroe did hit the ball exceptionally hard last season, with a 47.2% Hard%, so we would expect better than a .271 BABIP. At the same time a pull heavy approach, with just an 18.1% Oppo%, is going to help to offset that.
Just to further suppress the his BABIP, we can’t ignore the consistent pop-up issues that he has had in the Majors:
- 2016 – 15.4%
- 2017 – 15.1%
- 2018 – 15.6%
That, coupled with being prone to the shift, is going to further hamper any upside in his average. Throw in a crowded outfield mix, which could limit his playing time, and it’s hard to get too excited.
While Renfroe may not quite be on the Joey Gallo extreme, he does have that type of potential risk. With a rise in strikeouts as well would it really be a surprise to see him not closer to .220 with power? At the same time, depending on how the off-season goes, would the Padres feel the need to keep him in the lineup at that point?
There’s no questioning the potential as a power hitter, but be cautious before you invest. Considering he hasn’t shown the patience to draw a walk, the risk may far outweigh the potential reward.
Sources – Fangraphs, Brooks Baseball
** PRE-ORDER THE 2019 DRAFT GUIDE TODAY **
Pre-order Rotoprofessor’s 2018 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide for just $7.75!! Click here for the details, but don’t miss out on the best bargain in fantasy baseball preparation.
Make sure to check out all of our 2019 projections:
Player
|
Date Posted
|
---|---|
Dylan Bundy | 10/22/18 |
Foltynewicz, Mike | 10/09/18 |
Gibson, Kyle | 10/29/18 |
Hoskins, Rhys | 10/16/18 |
Hosmer, Eric | 11/05/18 |
Wheeler, Zack | 10/02/18 |
Source: http://rotoprofessor.com/baseball/?p=37588
Anyone can join.
Anyone can contribute.
Anyone can become informed about their world.
"United We Stand" Click Here To Create Your Personal Citizen Journalist Account Today, Be Sure To Invite Your Friends.
Please Help Support BeforeitsNews by trying our Natural Health Products below!
Order by Phone at 888-809-8385 or online at https://mitocopper.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomic.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Order by Phone at 866-388-7003 or online at https://www.herbanomics.com M - F 9am to 5pm EST
Humic & Fulvic Trace Minerals Complex - Nature's most important supplement! Vivid Dreams again!
HNEX HydroNano EXtracellular Water - Improve immune system health and reduce inflammation.
Ultimate Clinical Potency Curcumin - Natural pain relief, reduce inflammation and so much more.
MitoCopper - Bioavailable Copper destroys pathogens and gives you more energy. (See Blood Video)
Oxy Powder - Natural Colon Cleanser! Cleans out toxic buildup with oxygen!
Nascent Iodine - Promotes detoxification, mental focus and thyroid health.
Smart Meter Cover - Reduces Smart Meter radiation by 96%! (See Video).