Media exaggeration of ocean climate risks to Ireland disrupts planning, says oceanographer

Credit: NASA – GISS

” data-image-caption=”" data-large-file=”https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/atlantic1.jpg?w=614″ src=”https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/atlantic1.jpg?w=614″ alt=”" width=”614″ height=”260″ class=”aligncenter size-large wp-image-26686″ srcset=”https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/atlantic1.jpg?w=614 614w, https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/atlantic1.jpg?w=150 150w, https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/atlantic1.jpg?w=300 300w, https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/atlantic1.jpg 763w” sizes=”(max-width: 614px) 100vw, 614px” />
Studies promoting concerns about Atlantic ocean circulation (AMOC) are two-a-penny these days, mostly ‘suggesting’ alarmist outcomes could be on the way, or even imminent. Empirical evidence is needed but these studies are usually model-based, which should mean ‘treat with caution’. Inevitably the media likes to talk up any theoretical climate dramas to get attention.
– – –
The real climate risks to Ireland from changes to the Atlantic currents that sustain our mild climate are obscured by exaggerated claims in media headlines and movies, says Eurekalert.

That’s according to Dr Gerard McCarthy, a Maynooth University (MU) oceanographer at the Irish Climate Analysis and Research UnitS (ICARUS) in the Department of Geography, who has led a new article for Nature Climate Change.

The latest paper is a retrospective on a landmark 2015 study led by Professor Stefan Rahmstorf, which identified long-term Atlantic cooling as a sign that the Atlantic Meridional Circulation (AMOC) was weakening.

“The extreme climate collapse scenarios depicted in the Hollywood film, The Day After Tomorrow, and even in headlines of reputable mainstream media are often not grounded in scientific reality, but the genuine risks for Ireland are still significant and require proper planning,” said Dr McCarthy.

“It has happened that a new paper comes out, you get headlines saying the AMOC is going to collapse in the next few years. What we need to do is bring together a broader scientific voice to properly assess all the existing AMOC research literature, rather than having these seesawing headlines that concern and confuse our policymakers,” said Dr McCarthy.
. . .
Regarding what AMOC changes mean for Ireland’s future, Dr McCarthy said it’s likely we will see relative cooling in the Atlantic.

“Cooling is not really what I’m worried about. What concerns me is changes in precipitation patterns and storminess. A weakening AMOC tightens the temperature gradient that fuels Atlantic storms, like a taut elastic band – and then more of those storms get catapulted towards Ireland. Ireland sits right at the end of this system. We are hugely dependent on the heat it transports, so we need a clear consensus voice, grounded in science, to plan properly,” said Dr McCarthy.

Dr McCarthy is an expert on AMOC; the system of ocean currents, sometimes known as the Gulf Stream System, that is critical to Ireland’s temperate climate, despite it being at a similar latitude to southern Alaska.

Full article here.
– – –
Image credit: NASA – GISS